¿Va a explotar la burbuja de la vivienda por "desesperación"?

🔔Subscribe to Capital Radio's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/Capitalradi... 👈 Did you enjoy this content? Thank you for giving us a thumbs up! 👍 ⭐Become a member of this channel to enjoy exclusive benefits:    / @capitalradiob   🖱Follow us on: X ➡ https://www.x.com/CAPITALRADIOB LinkedIn ➡   / capital-business-radio   Twitch ➡   / capitalradiob   Instagram ➡   / capitalradiob   TikTok ➡   / capitalradiob   The Spanish real estate market is experiencing one of its most challenging periods in the last decade. According to Tecnocasa's latest report for 2025, obtaining a mortgage has become a near-impossible task for Spanish families, despite interest rates remaining controlled at around 2%. The situation is so critical that "a household with an average salary cannot access an average mortgage under the standard 30% debt-to-income ratio," a basic recommendation for maintaining family financial stability. This reality reflects the major housing access problem facing Spain. Spain leads price growth in Europe José García-Montalvo, Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) and Director of the Tecnocasa-UPF Group Chair, explains that "the last two years have seen rapid price growth." While other European countries experienced this phenomenon in 2021 and 2022 with growth rates of 12% to 20%, Spain began its upward climb just as these markets were slowing down. “We’re going through a cycle, this time a real estate cycle that’s quite asynchronous with respect to other European Union countries,” notes García-Montalvo. “Right now, along with Portugal, we’re leading the European Union in housing price growth rates.” Real estate bubble or structural problem? Unlike the 2008 crisis, the expert rules out the existence of a real estate bubble. “There are no macroeconomic indicators that tell us there’s a bubble,” he states. Current data shows that prices in real terms are at 2003-2004 levels, transactions at 2004 levels, and credit quality indicators as they were in 1999. The fundamental difference with the previous bubble is clear: “At that time, 600,000-650,000 homes were being built, and 300,000-350,000 households were being formed. There was a clear oversupply.” The current situation is completely the opposite: "Around 100,000 homes are being completed each year, and 200,000-220,000 families are being formed annually." "There's no bubble, there's desperation." García-Montalvo defines the current situation with a powerful statement: "There's no bubble. There's desperation." This desperation arises because "people have limited resources, prices have risen rapidly in the last two years, and from a psychological perspective, people feel they have to act quickly." The rental market exacerbates the situation by being "completely disrupted" and "completely collapsed," which is pushing many people toward buying. "Many people are shifting from renting to buying because they simply can't afford the rent, or the rent is so expensive that it's more cost-effective to take out a mortgage." The solution: more affordable housing For the professor, the solution is clear: "We need more housing, and we need much more affordable housing." The imbalance between families' purchasing power and housing prices has a natural limit: "Families can't afford these mortgages, or they're no longer taking out mortgages that far exceed a reasonable amount in terms of their income." Unlike the previous crisis, the financial sector is maintaining stricter criteria. "This time, the financial sector isn't going to succumb to the temptations of 2005, 2006, and 2007," explains García-Montalvo, both because of past experience and because "the European Central Bank won't allow it." Record Prices The data confirms the seriousness of the situation: housing closed 2025 with a 13% increase in the price per square meter, reaching a record high of €2,230. At the same time, mortgages on homes have exceeded half a million, growing by 18%. The Spanish real estate market is at a historic crossroads where a lack of supply, combined with sustained demand driven by new household formation and immigration, has created an extremely difficult situation for Spanish families to access housing. Without a significant increase in the construction of affordable housing, this market crunch seems destined to continue for some time.