Why Australia’s Housing Market STILL Hasn’t Crashed (yet) - TV

For over 20 years, Australians have been told the housing market is about to crash. Rates have surged. Debt is at record levels. Affordability is stretched. And yet… the market hasn’t collapsed. So what’s really going on? In this video, I break down the six structural reasons why Australia’s housing market behaves differently — and why it tends to bend rather than break. More importantly, I’ll walk you through the three conditions that actually cause housing crashes globally — and what would need to happen for Australia to follow. This isn’t speculation. This is how the system actually works. ⸻ What you’ll learn: • Why Australia doesn’t crash like the US • How recourse lending changes behaviour • The real role of interest rates (and why most people misunderstand it) • How migration and supply constraints support prices • What actually causes housing crashes (globally) • The three scenarios that could break the Australian market ⸻ About Barry Maskell: Barry Maskell has over four decades of experience across valuation, advisory, agency, and buyer advocacy in the Australian property market. ⸻ Disclaimer: This video is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. australian housing market REALESTATETV • housing crash australia • property market australia 2026 • interest rates australia housing • housing bubble australia • will house prices crash australia • property investing australia • real estate australia • mortgage stress australia • housing affordability australia 00:00 Why hasn’t the Australian housing market crashed? 02:15 What is a housing crash? 03:10 Crash Test #1 – Debt 04:08 Crash Test #2 – Recourse Lending 05:28 Crash Test #3 – Interest Rates 07:49 Crash Test #4 – APRA Rules 08:35 Crash Test #5 – Population Growth 08:35 Supply Shortage Explained 11:10 Melbourne – The Exception 11:57 Crash Test #6 – Double Leverage 13:50 What actually causes crashes 20:00 Final conclusion SOURCES & DATA Housing price-to-income ratios (1990 & 2025): RBA Historical Household Sector Data rba.gov.au/chart-pack/household-sector National median dwelling values & city-by-city Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) Home Value Index March 2026 — released 1 April 2026 cotality.com/au Average household income ($115,000): ABS Average Weekly Earnings, Australia November 2025 — released February 2026 abs.gov.au Sydney median house value ($1.6M): Cotality HVI February 2026 Victoria rental property losses (24,716): realestate.com.au, January 2025 "Victoria loses more than 24,000 rental homes as investors flee the state" APRA 3% serviceability buffer: APRA Prudential Practice Guide APG 223 Updated October 2021 APRA debt-to-income cap (6x, November 2025): APRA media release, November 2025 apra.gov.au Debt acceleration & house prices (Steve Keen): Keen, S. (2025) — Substack, October 2025 profstevekeen.substack.com Mortgage repayment calculations: Standard P&I amortisation formula All figures independently verified