White Men Didn’t Win When Affirmative Action Died

On June 29, 2023, the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action in college admissions. Conservative media indirectly declared it a victory for white men. Then the data came in. White men gained 72 seats. Across 71 elite schools. In this video, I'm breaking down the legal history of affirmative action — from Bakke (1978) to Grutter (2003) to Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard (2023) — and then testing the thesis that white men underperformed because they never had to compete with everyone. I'm using federal IPEDS enrollment data, SAT and GPA distribution research, NAEP reading scores, and the landmark Chetty, Friedman & Deming study on elite college admissions to show exactly what's been propping up white male enrollment at elite institutions — and what happened when part of that structure was removed. Spoiler: It wasn't affirmative action holding them back. Sources: Manhattan Institute (May 2026) — Robert VerBruggen, "The Students for Fair Admissions Fallout: An Analysis of Freshman Enrollment by Race" — IPEDS data, 1,000+ four-year colleges, 2010–2024 trends. Ivy League shifts: Black 11%→8%, Hispanic 16%→15%, White 35%→37%, Asian 30%→32%. Hechinger Report (2026) — Analysis of IPEDS 2024 data: +72 white men, +479 white women at 71 elite private schools; Black women enrollment -27%. Chetty, Friedman & Deming / Opportunity Insights (2023) — "Diversifying Society's Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of College Admissions." Harvard/Brown economists. Key finding: top 1% applicants 34% more likely to be admitted with identical test scores; top 0.1% more than twice as likely. Dartmouth: 5x more likely. American Institute for Boys and Men — National longitudinal data: girls GPA 3.23, boys 3.0; boys = 67% of bottom GPA decile, 34% of top decile. College Board SAT Data — Male average ~1,032, female average ~1,023; boys = 57% of bottom decile on Reading & Writing section. NAEP Nation's Report Card (2022) — Asian/Pacific Islander 4th graders outperform white 4th graders by 12 points in reading; gap was 7 points in 2019 and 8 points in 1992 (when white students led). Carly A. Kocurek, Illinois Institute of Technology — Research and commentary on gender gaps in standardized testing performance. STUDENTS FOR FAIR ADMISSIONS v. Harvard & UNC, 597 U.S. (2023) — Roberts majority; Gorsuch concurrence on legacy preferences. Brookings Institution — Richard Reeves and Ember Smith, research on the gender gap in educational achievement: kindergarten repetition rates, 8th-grade reading gap, advanced course enrollment (28 states), high school graduation rates by gender, and bachelor's degree attainment trends 1995–present. Cited via Carly A. Kocurek, Illinois Institute of Technology. Applerouth Education / Jed Applerouth, PhD — synthesis of gender gap social science literature, noting 1950s research documenting female grade advantage. Education Week Research Center survey (2025) — nationally representative survey of 611 K-12 teachers on boys' behavioral patterns; "For Too Many Boys, School Isn't Working" project. DiPrete and Jennings, Columbia University — peer-reviewed research showing grade gap between boys and girls largely explained by non-cognitive behavioral factors. Kuhfeld & Burchinal (2025), FutureEd/Northwest Evaluation Association — 10 million student dataset, K-5, 2016-2025: boys' reading gap stable since kindergarten, math advantage grows throughout elementary. Murat Iyigun & Jeanne Lafortune — Journal of Labor Economics (2023), peer-reviewed: wives' economic support for husbands' college in the 1950s, CU Boulder write-up.