台股大跌該逃嗎？AI已成失速列車？拆解下半年全球市場四大變數！油價震盪、聯準會利率與台美韓股資產配置 ft.渣打銀行 劉家豪 【#市場觀測站Podcast EP182】CC字幕 @cteevideo​

🚨 Are you panicking with the Taiwan stock market's wild swings? Is the AI ​​train about to derail? Faced with the recent dramatic fluctuations in the Taiwan stock market, the biggest question on investors' minds is: "Should I get off this train? Is this a healthy rotation, or just the calm before the storm?" Although the Taiwan stock market was consolidating at a high level when this episode was recorded, the four key variables pointed out by Allen Liu, Head of Investment Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management, in the program—"four major variables in the second half of the year, chaotic market sentiment, and decoupling from capital flow"—have proven perfectly borne out in the past few days! Is the continued volatility in the Taiwan stock market essentially what Allen Liu analyzed in the program: "a readjustment of market sentiment and technical indicators after a significant rise"? Want to know how Standard Chartered Bank's wealthy clients are conducting defensive asset allocation through "stock selection, bond selection, and timing" during this market downturn? This episode will be the much-needed boost of confidence for you! 💡 Episode 182 Core Industry Insights (⚠️Recorded: 2026/7/15): 【Four Core Variables in the Global Market in the Second Half of the Year】 ◎Variable 1: Middle East Geopolitics and Oil Price Rebound While the temporary agreement between the US and Iran and expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a temporary drop in oil prices, the short-term situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. The volatile rebound in oil prices introduces uncertainty into global inflation and the process of central bank interest rate cuts. ◎Variable 2: The "Siphoning Effect" of Large-Capital IPOs The wave of massive IPOs, such as SpaceX and SK Hynix's US listings, has captured a huge amount of capital in the market. The liquidity fluctuations caused by the withdrawal and release of funds have exacerbated the sharp ups and downs in the US stock market. ◎Variable Three: A Dramatic Policy Reversal by New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh The new Fed Chair, Warsh, has made a radical shift, moving from an expected rate cut to a hawkish stance that doesn't rule out "resolutely combating inflation and raising rates" under the pressure of combating inflation. This has put immense pressure on global bond and currency markets. ◎Variable Four: Over-Concentration of Investors' Positions (Crowded Trades) Stock markets in Taiwan, the US, and South Korea, linked to AI supply chains, have seen astonishing gains over the past 1-2 years (South Korean stocks saw a 150% increase). Disorganized trading patterns and over-concentration of positions have led to a recent 20-25% technical correction. 【Core Industry and Asset Allocation Insights】 ◎The Divergent Landscape of Asian Markets "Isolated from AI": The extreme divergence in Asian stock market performance in the second half of the year is primarily due to whether or not they have connected with the AI ​​narrative. Taiwan (possessing advanced manufacturing processes and high-end packaging), South Korea (booming demand for memory chips), and Japan (cutting-edge semiconductor equipment and specialty chemicals) have become the focus of capital investment. Conversely, India and China, due to the extremely low proportion of AI-related stocks in their stock market components, even with some robotics or AI startups launching, are too small to drive overall market performance. ◎ The three-part investment strategy of "hardware infrastructure, cloud platforms, and application software": Entering the second half of the year, the market is not only looking at the "future capital expenditure pie," but also demanding "tangible monetization capabilities." Currently, hardware infrastructure (such as TSMC and UMC's price increases, and full order books and capacity utilization) has the highest visibility; cloud platforms (Meta's monetization of low-end computing power and investment in high-end cloud data centers) have great growth potential; however, application software and software vendors (such as IBM's plummeting stock price) are suffering from the disruption of their ecosystems by AI, resulting in extremely low visibility. Investors should temporarily focus on the "hardware side," which has the highest visibility. ◎Golden Rules for Stock-Bond Allocation: Lessons from Nvidia's 4x Oversubscription of US Treasuries: Nvidia's previous $20 billion bond issuance attracted a staggering $80 billion in oversubscription, a four-fold increase! This proves that even under high interest rates, bonds issued by high-quality companies that provide stable cash flow remain the "basic foundation" for institutional and wealthy investors. Don't blindly choose between stocks and bonds; instead, build a defensive and resilient portfolio by "creating stable interest income from high-quality corporate bonds and participating in AI growth with high-quality stocks." 🎙️Host: Chen ...