코스피 '날개 없는 추락'...언제까지 떨어질까? [뉴스나우] / YTN

■ Hosts: Anchor Kim Seon-young, Anchor Jeong Ji-woong ■ Guest: Economic Commentator Jeong Cheol-jin The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content. Please refer to the broadcast for more accurate information. When quoting, please specify [YTN News NOW]. [Anchor] The stock market, which laughs and cries like this, is plummeting again today. We will examine the situation regarding stocks and real estate with Economic Commentator Jeong Cheol-jin. Welcome. [Anchor] How could things be like this today and tomorrow? [Jeong Cheol-jin] It was the same yesterday. In particular, the ADR listing was a huge success last Friday, and stock prices were good, but yesterday, talk of "SK Hynix's betrayal" is even emerging. Ultimately, the semiconductor stocks, summarized as "Samsungnix," played a role in our rapid rise from 2,500 to 9,000. This recent volatility can also be seen as a volatility of Samsungnix. As I will discuss further shortly, skepticism regarding the memory supercycle is by no means the prevailing view. However, it is slowly creeping out here and there. Along with this, there are single-stock leveraged ETFs in the domestic stock market, aren't there? These have severely tangled the supply and demand dynamics. Because they are twisted in such a negative way that no one can untangle them, the market crashes much more sharply when it falls—a phenomenon known as "short gamma"—which is typically seen in the derivatives market. This behavior, which is usually expected to occur in the derivatives market, was observed in our KOSPI spot market. Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump’s stance on the Iran situation has further exacerbated the situation. Looking at the current developments, people had previously assumed it was simply going to be a "taco," and hadn't even paid attention to it. However, overnight, oil prices surged by about 10% during trading hours. Given the threat of a 20% toll, it appears the embers of the Iran issue have not been completely extinguished. It seems that all these factors have combined to bring about a situation where, although the decline had begun a long time ago, the index has now fallen below 7,000 and even 6,800. [Anchor] You mentioned the war, but in any case, it seems the Korean market is particularly volatile compared to the rest of the overall market. So, I strongly suspect that this might be due to recently listed ETFs or similar factors. What are your thoughts on this? [Jeong Cheol-jin] That is it. We must view it as 100% that. It is called a circuit breaker. A first-level circuit breaker, which is much stronger than a sidecar, is triggered when the market drops by around -8%. Prior to this year, circuit breakers were triggered six times in the domestic stock market, and if you look at the details of those six instances, they were triggered whenever there was a risk—such as the collapse of the dot-com bubble or the outbreak of the financial crisis. However, seven more were triggered after that. Circuit breakers were triggered seven times this year alone. It was six times before that. But among those seven times this year—which is shown on the screen right now—excluding the one on March 5th, that one at least had a valid reason to trigger a circuit breaker because the U.S. and Iran were at war. The remaining six times had almost no reason. The fact that the market was pushed down by more than -8% with such minor factors clearly indicates a distortion in supply and demand, and that can only be explained by one factor. As expected, it is a single-stock leveraged ETF. As it is, the concentration in the Korean stock market and economy is already excessively skewed toward Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The weight of just these two stocks—Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—on the KOSPI exceeds 50%. If we add what we call the "S7"—Square, Samsung Electric, Samsung Life Insurance, and Samsung C&T—including preferred shares, it exceeds 70%. With such heavy concentration, a leveraged ETF is precisely what significantly increases the gamma value, which further exacerbates this extreme bias. And that is because it is tied to just the two stocks of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. If there is a 3% rise, you can assume it rises by about 5–6% due to the long gamma of leveraged ETTs... (omitted) YTN Kim Ji-sun ([email protected]) ▶ Original Article : https://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0102_202607... ▶ Send a Tip : https://mj.ytn.co.kr/mj/mj_write.php ▣ Subscribe to YTN YouTube Channel : http://goo.gl/Ytb5SZ ⓒ YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use of AI data are prohibited