Tuomas Forsberg — Finland’s Baltic Sea Policy

Tuomas Forsberg argues that Finland’s modern history is fundamentally Baltic: trade flows, cultural exchange, and political connectivity across the sea have mattered more to Finnish statehood than its long land border with Russia. In his framing, Finland functions like an “island” whose economy, security of supply, and strategic infrastructure depend on Baltic maritime routes and the stability of ports, cables, and energy connections. Forsberg then maps Finland’s Baltic Sea policy since 1945 as a sequence of geopolitical eras. First, the Cold War: a low‑tension regional posture built around cautious management of Soviet relations, Nordic cooperation, and practical frameworks that reduced friction in an exposed geography. Second, the post‑1991 moment of Baltic optimism: EU integration, cross‑border city and regional networks, and cooperative projects designed to make the region a rules‑based space in which Russia could be embedded. Third, the return of hard security—accelerating after 2014 and reshaped decisively by Russia’s full‑scale war against Ukraine—driving Finland and Sweden toward deterrence and NATO integration in what increasingly resembles a NATO‑centred Baltic. Forsberg emphasises that the most acute risks are now often “hybrid”: sabotage, disruption of undersea infrastructure, and coercion below the threshold of open war. Across all shifts, environmental fragility and the strategic salience of islands and demilitarised arrangements remain enduring Baltic constants. Tuomas Forsberg is Professor of International Relations at Tampere University, with research spanning European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Nordic foreign and security policy. Key Topics 00:00 Finland as a Baltic “island”: trade dependence and regional connectivity 02:04 Cold War low tension: neutrality management and Baltic stability 04:16 Post‑1991 idealism: EU enlargement, regional cooperation, and integrating Russia 06:28 From low tension to deterrence: a NATO‑centred Baltic and hybrid threats 09:08 What Finland brings to NATO: total defence, security of supply, and regional depth The published anthology: https://bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/book... For more visit: Axess Television: https://axesstelevision.com / /    / @axesstv1   About: Axess Axess Television is a premium Swedish channel dedicated to critical ideas, culture, science and meaningful dialogue. Explore documentaries, interviews and seminars that challenge, inspire and inform. Engelsberg Ideas: https://engelsbergideas.com / /    / @engelsbergideas   About: Engelsberg Ideas is home to great writing from leading thinkers on history, culture and geopolitics, featuring essays, notebooks, reviews, and historical portraits as well as regular podcasts. Stolpe Publishing: https://bokforlagetstolpe.com / /    / @bokforlagetstolpe2865   About: Bokförlaget Stolpe publishes high-quality non-fiction books in the fields of humanities and social sciences. We prioritize content, design, reproduction, printing, and binding. Axess Magasin: https://www.axess.se About: Axess Magazine is a journal that offers current Swedish and international debate on ideas in the social sciences and humanities. Each issue also contains an extensive section with reviews of the latest international non-fiction literature. The Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation https://axsonjohnsonfoundation.org The Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation for Public Benefit is a private foundation with the primary purpose of promoting scientific and scholarly research. Its focus today is on the humanities and social sciences.