We Asked Vanguard's Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins

AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector. Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments https://amzn.to/4v8L7Of Vanguard Megatrends Research Hub https://explore.vanguard.com/megatren... Topics Covered: AI as a potential general purpose technology Why long-term megatrends can affect short-term market returns The four forces shaping the next decade: technology, demographics, deficits and globalization Why Vanguard believes AI could lift U.S. growth above consensus How AI could offset aging demographics and rising debt Why great technology cycles often include major stock market drawdowns The difference between AI automation, augmentation and new industry creation Why the next AI winners may be in healthcare, financial services and other service industries The risk that AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate the outlook How tariffs, oil prices and AI investment interact in the macro outlook What AI could mean for 60/40 portfolios, value stocks, fixed income and international markets Joe Davis’ lesson for average investors: the power of compounding Timestamps: 00:00 Why every great technology eventually faces a market drawdown 04:28 The four megatrends shaping the economy 08:56 How megatrends explain short-term S&P 500 moves 13:22 Why AI may be in the 1996 or 1997 stage 18:29 Where the next AI winners could emerge 21:44 AI, fiscal deficits and the danger of kicking the can 26:17 Why 2% growth and 2% inflation may be unlikely 30:31 How to tell if AI augmentation is really working 33:19 AI, globalization and which countries could benefit 38:14 Why investors need a multi-factor macro scorecard 41:23 What AI means for the 60/40 portfolio 44:12 Joe Davis on investing, compounding and Vanguard’s megatrends research