The Capital Of Capital Is Going Up — And It Won't Come Back Down

Three of the world's most important central banks meet this week — and the stakes could not be higher. Markets are pricing a growing chance of a Fed hike, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to hold. But the meeting decisions are only part of the story. Beneath the central bank calendars, a deeper and more structural tension is building: an explosion in private sector capital demand - equity and debt issuance to fund the AI infrastructure buildout is competing directly with yawning fiscal deficits that governments need to finance. The bond market is being asked to absorb an unprecedented volume of supply at exactly the moment that rates are rising. Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews - 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup - to work through what this week's central bank decisions mean, and why the longer-term capital competition story may be the more important one for investors to understand. In this episode: Fed, BoE and BoJ: what markets are pricing, what Jonny expects, and what a surprise would mean for rates and FX Why the chances of BoE and BoJ tightening this week are negligible — and what that tells us about the pace of global normalisation The AI capital buildout: why the scale of equity and debt issuance required is a structural headwind for bond markets Fiscal deficits and the public sector financing gap — why governments are competing directly with the private sector for investor capital What the convergence of tighter monetary policy and surging capital demand means for long-term bond yields, equities and FX Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at super-macro.com