Теорема Байеса. Наглядное объяснение

Support the channel with a donation: On DonationAlerts: https://dalink.to/matter_and_mind On YooMoney: https://yoomoney.ru/to/410011342416371 BTC: bc1qt78lkcywa65yh34zjuwjxmzm2feq7nl4f6n7t3 USDT TRC20: TYCCKoRxnAgcHa2vZ5aWVr72qBP4yAbTKo Hello everyone! Imagine you've been tested for a rare disease. The test is 90% accurate, and the result is positive. Your intuition immediately sounds the alarm, telling you that the probability of you contracting the disease is also 90%, but the cold statistics tell you otherwise – you're probably healthy, and the chance of actually having the disease is only about 8%. How does our intuition fall into this trap? In this new episode, we'll visually explore one of the most fundamental mathematical rules, known as Bayes' Theorem (or Bayes' Formula). Using a simple and straightforward animation, we'll decipher this formula step by step and see how initial beliefs, new facts, and error probabilities come together to form our updated worldview. But Bayes' Theorem isn't just abstract mathematics or medical paradoxes. This elegant principle of constant retraining has become the foundation of modern artificial intelligence, helping, for example, spam filters sort emails and self-driving cars safely assess traffic situations. I hope this mathematical tool will help you make more informed decisions in real life.