Probabilità 04 - Applicazioni del Teorema di Bayes e della probabilità totale

If an event can be the result of multiple causes, how can we quantitatively assess the probability of each of these causes if the event in question has been observed? In this video, you'll discover how to use Bayes' theorem and total probability to solve problems of this type. Specifically, we'll do this with two concrete examples. Example 1 (Medical Statistics): What is the probability of actually being ill with a certain infectious disease (such as COVID-19) knowing that the rapid test was positive? PLEASE NOTE: The numerical data are completely invented for the purpose of this exercise; they have no bearing on actual data from the COVID-19 pandemic. Example 2 (Industry): If a company has two production lines and observes a defective part, what is the probability that it came from line 1 and line 2? By the end of the video, you will have learned how to model these types of problems using a tree model and how to use Bayes' Theoem and total probability to solve them. ______________________________________________________________ 🙏Thanks to Dr. FerruX for his valuable advice and support. / @DocFerruX Follow his channel for math content dedicated to the early years of high school. ______________________________________________________________ #️⃣Hashtag: #school #teaching #learning #study #teaching #learning #understanding #Mathematics #probability #combinatorial calculus #calculus #maths #mathematics #math #numerical #factorial #classicalprobability #incompatibleevents #favorablecases #probabilitytheory #probabilitydistribution ________________________________________________________________ INDEX 00:00 Intro and channel objective 01:12 Example 1 (medical statistics): clinical trials and predictive value 13:57 Example 2 (Industry): production line control 21:32 Outro