Growing Risk Of Semiconductors Rolling Over & Dragging The Market Down With Them | Lance Roberts

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The white-hot semiconductor sector has rocketed to 18% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index. And while this trade has propelled the S&P higher, it's starting to show signs that it may be sputtering out. A head & shoulders formation appears to be forming. If confirmed, then it's highly likely semis will pull the overall down with them as they correct. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the overall status of the AI trade, the latest jobs numbers, the resumption of kinetics between the US & Iran and the resulting likely impact on the price of oil, as well as, of course, Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. #semiconductors #marketcorrection #oilprices 00:00 Rick Rule Symposium Recap & Critical Minerals Focus 05:00 Fourth of July Stories & Texas Barbecue Debate 07:45 Adam’s Lake Tahoe Party with Tech Elite & Sergey Brin 10:30 Tech Founders Derisking Amid AI Capex Concerns 13:15 Yan Benk’s AI Deep Dive: Valuations vs. Fundamentals 16:00 Lance’s New Article: AI Capex, Productivity & Debt 19:30 Capex Multiplier Effect & Economic Growth Impact 22:45 Debt-to-GDP, Productivity Trends & Post-WWII Lessons 26:00 Government’s Role in Power & AI Infrastructure 29:00 Public-Private Partnerships for Nuclear & Data Centers 32:15 Travel Industry Complaints & Post-9/11 Reality 35:00 DOGE, Waste, Fraud & Abuse in Government Spending 38:30 Why the U.S. Hasn’t Had a Real Budget Since 2008 41:45 Iran Conflict Update & Escalation Risks 45:00 Why Oil Prices Haven’t Spiked Despite Geopolitics 48:00 Fed Minutes & Kevin Warsh’s Hawkish Stance 51:30 Jobs Data Strength & K-Shaped Economy Debate 55:00 S&P 500 Breaks Out – Bullish Technical Analysis 58:30 Earnings Season & Parabolic Forward Estimates 1:02:00 Semiconductor Risks & Head-and-Shoulders Pattern 1:05:30 China AI Competition & Efficiency vs. Brute Force 1:09:00 Power Bottleneck for AI & New Nuclear Reactor Milestones 1:13:00 Margin Debt Risks & New Lower SEC/FINRA Rules 1:17:30 Portfolio Positioning: Bonds & Duration Strategy 1:21:00 The “Pacho Test” Rant – Objective Metrics in Life & Business _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video. Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosure Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreement IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.