The Case for International Investing with Mark Biller

Over the past decade, U.S. stocks have been the center of the investing universe. And for good reason—the U.S. market remains one of the strongest and most influential in the world. But wise investing is not simply about looking at where the market has been. It also means asking where opportunities may be emerging next. That raises an important question: Should investors consider looking beyond U.S. markets? On today’s show, Mark Biller, Executive Editor and Senior Portfolio Manager at Sound Mind Investing (https://soundmindinvesting.org/?%24we...) , says the answer is worth careful consideration. While U.S. stocks remain important, global markets, currencies, and economic leadership are always changing. For investors seeking wise diversification, international investing may deserve a closer look. Why Consider International Investing? Historically, one of the main reasons to own international stocks has been diversification. Decades ago, foreign markets often moved more independently from U.S. markets. When U.S. stocks struggle, international stocks might perform better, helping smooth out a portfolio's ups and downs. That benefit has diminished somewhat as globalization has grown. Today, U.S. and foreign markets often move in the same general direction. But diversification is still not the only reason to consider investing abroad. Another reason is opportunity. Many strong companies are based outside the United States. Investors who focus only on domestic markets may miss out on growth taking place in other parts of the world. There is also a broader market-cycle consideration. U.S. and international stocks tend to trade leadership over long periods. One may outperform for a decade or more, and then the pattern can shift. After roughly 15 years of strong U.S. market leadership, foreign stocks may be positioned to become more competitive again. The U.S. Market Is Strong—But Not Permanent The U.S. economy remains the largest and strongest in the world. America benefits from deep capital markets, natural resources, innovation, and relative political stability. Still, Mark points out that U.S. financial assets have been “punching above their weight” for some time. U.S. stocks currently represent a much larger share of global stock markets than the U.S. represents of global economic output. That does not mean U.S. stocks are destined to decline. But it does suggest that today’s level of dominance should not be assumed to last forever. The global economy is shifting toward a more multipolar world, where economic leadership may be spread more broadly across regions. If foreign investors begin directing more capital toward their home markets, international stocks could benefit. Why the Global Economy Matters One of the most important distinctions investors should understand is the difference between global stock market share and global economic output. According to Mark, U.S. stocks represent about 64% of the global equity market, while the U.S. share of global economic production is closer to 15%. That is a significant gap. There is no rule that a nation’s stock market share must match its share of global economic activity. But those numbers have shifted over time, and there is no guarantee that the current U.S. share of global markets will remain this high indefinitely. For investors, this means it may be wise to pay attention to where economic growth is happening outside the United States—especially in emerging markets. The Opportunity—and Risk—of Emerging Markets Emerging markets can offer significant long-term growth potential. These countries often have growing populations, rising standards of living, and expanding economies. But that potential comes with higher volatility. Capital can move quickly in and out of emerging markets, creating larger swings in performance. Investors should understand that while the long-term growth story may be compelling, the risks are also greater. For that reason, emerging markets should generally be approached thoughtfully, as one part of a diversified strategy—not as a speculative bet. The Role of Currency Currency also plays an important role in international investing. Most Americans earn and spend in dollars, so they may not think much about exchange rates unless they travel internationally or buy foreign goods. But for investors, currency movements can have a meaningful impact. When a U.S. investor buys foreign stocks, returns are influenced by two factors: the performance of the foreign market and the movement of that country’s currency against the U.S. dollar. If the foreign currency strengthens against the dollar, it can enhance returns for a U.S. investor. If it weakens, it c...