Super El Nino Likely - But What About the PDO?

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast (Episode #635) for the week starting Sunday, July 19th, 2026. Current marine conditions, short term forecast out 2 weeks including snow and precipitation forecasts, and the long term forecast going out a month to year or more for surf, snow and rain based on projections of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and ENSO (El Nino/La Nina). Click the 'Thumbs Up' icon if you liked the video. To subscribe to get an automatic notification when we post a new video just click the Stormsurf Icon down in the lower right hand corner of the screen. If you have question or an opinion - even if it's contrary to this weeks thesis - post a comment. We try to reply to every comment. Contributions always welcome. Use the 'Super Thanks' button (the Heart with the $ sign in it) to donate a few dollars. It is always appreciated. And visit our website at www.Stormsurf.com to follow along during the week to view all the details, including wave models, weather models, snow models, surf forecasts and so much more: http://www.stormsurf.com Thanks for watching! OUTLINE Introduction Current Ocean Conditions Global Significant Wave Height Current Conditions/Buoy Analysis (46029, 029, 191, 239) Significant Wave Height Hindcast (SPac, NPac, NAtla, SAtla, Indian Ocean) Atmospheric, Ocean and Surf Projections Jetstream Forecast (SPac) Surface Pressure/Wind Forecast Significant Wave Height Forecast (NPac, SPac) Significant Wave Height Forecast (NAtla, SAtla, Indian Ocean) California and Hawaii Local Wind Forecast Tropical Outlook Spot Surf Forecasts (PNW, NCAL, SCal, HI) Long Term Outlook Equatorial Wind Conditions Zonal Wind Analysis (TAO) 5 day Zonal Surface Wind Hindcast MJO Forecasts 2 Week OLR/MJO Forecast and MJO Phase Diagrams 2 week GFS/ECMWF Zonal Wind Anomaly Forecast 1 month CFS Zonal Wind Anomaly Forecast 3 month CFS Zonal Wind Anomaly, MJO and Pressure Bias Subsurface Water Temp Analysis Subsurface Water Temp Analysis (TOA) Subsurface Water Temp Analysis (GODAS) Pentad Geoid Sea Level Anomaly Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies (1 Year Trend) Equatorial Sea Surface Temp Analysis Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Alternate SST Anomaly Values 7 & 15 day SST Anomaly Trend CDAS NINO 1.2 & 3.4 Anomaly Trend RONI Weekly SSTA Values Equatorial Current - Notice West Current Returns in the East Atmospheric Pressure Analysis/SOI Southern Oscillation Index SOI 30 day Graph ENSO Analysis/Forecast CFS Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly Forecast SSTA Closeup Comparison (1997 and 2026) Coupling Status - 1 yr OLR RONI Table Review 2+ degs SSTA Comparison 2 charts PDO Hindcast PDO Forecast Impacts? Summary Credits --- Contents of This Video 0:00 Introduction 2:22 Current Ocean Conditions 15:28 Pacific and Global Atmospheric, Oceanic and Surf Projections 32:47 Long Term Outlook 33:04 Equatorial Wind Conditions 39:07 MJO Forecasts 48:38 Equatorial Subsurface Water Temp Analysis 55:06 Equatorial Sea Surface Temp Analysis 1:00:49 Atmospheric SOI/Pressure Analysis 1:04:23 ENSO Analysis/Forecast 1:17:38 Summary 1:26:18 Credits