J'ai enquêté sur la prédiction la plus folle sur Bitcoin

A research paper claims to have modeled Bitcoin's price using a power law—and its projections yield $491,000 in 2030 and $4.7 million in 2040. Before crying miracle or scam, this video sheds some light on the matter. Because behind this magic number of 5.69, there are two mechanisms presented as independent—network growth and Metcalfe's Law—whose multiplication almost exactly matches fifteen years of Bitcoin's history. An adjustment at 0.96. A curve that almost perfectly follows the entire trajectory from 5 cents to $124,000. But is this a hidden constant of the network, like a physical law applied to currency? Or a neat straight line on the right graph, made spectacularly clean by a logarithmic scale that visually masks the volatility? Why is the adoption proxy used—the number of Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance—eroding precisely when ownership is centralizing in ETFs and large custodians? Why is the convergence to within 1.6%, the paper's moment of glory, less miraculous than it seems? And what to make of a model that publishes its own conditions for refutation—which, in itself, is a rare form of intellectual honesty? And in the final section, something more useful: do models built on radically different logics—Saylor, ARK Invest, WisdomTree, VanEck—ultimately tell the same story about Bitcoin's long-term annualized return? The answer is more interesting than any price projection. #Bitcoin #PowerLaw #Investing