Former NSC Director Barry Pavel on China, Iran, AI, and the Most Dangerous Moment in a Generation

On this episode of The Future of GovCon, Jake Frazer sits down with Barry Pavel, former Director for Defense Policy and Strategy on the National Security Council under Presidents Bush and Obama, former VP at RAND Corporation, and co-founder of the Scowcroft Center at the Atlantic Council. Barry has helped write multiple presidents' national security strategies and the first cyber deterrence strategy in the Pentagon. In this conversation he connects the dots on China, Iran, AI, and the four country alignment that should have every defense executive paying attention. 🔔 Subscribe and leave us a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify — it helps more people in the GovCon community find the show. 00:00 – Hook: Iran, North Korea, Russia, China — the four country alignment 01:19 – Welcome and introduction 01:39 – Barry's background: Pentagon, NSC, RAND, Atlantic Council 04:18 – Growing up in Philadelphia, path into government 05:55 – Writing the first cyber deterrence strategy in the Pentagon 06:17 – Sent to the White House during the 2008 presidential transition 07:35 – Working for both Bush and Obama 09:40 – Secretary Rumsfeld's entrepreneurial culture and the lessons it left 10:01 – In the E-ring in June 2001: a boss looks out the window 10:54 – In the Pentagon on 9/11 and back the next day 12:10 – The lesson: prepare to be surprised 13:06 – The mega changes shaping our environment right now 16:16 – AI is not the future, it is now 17:33 – Artificial superintelligence and why it matters 18:27 – AI experts in private: a 3% chance of human extinction in three years 19:22 – The $1.5 trillion defense budget 20:17 – Neo Primes: Anduril, Palantir, and the new entrants 21:21 – NATO, Europe, and the administration's tone toward allies 25:51 – Will the US stay in NATO? 28:16 – Every administration says no more Middle East, then gets pulled back in 29:01 – Four scenarios for what the Iran conflict means for US-China competition 33:54 – What Gulf states are already buying 35:06 – Pivoting to the Pacific and the NDS 37:19 – China is still the pacing threat 39:07 – Russia, North Korea, and the formal alliance 40:07 – The four country alignment and the World War Two parallel 42:01 – Could AI force US-China cooperation? 46:19 – Fast forward to 2029: Barry's view of the world 47:37 – XI Jinping and the Davidson Window 49:05 – AI adoption across the military 51:42 – One word on the future: "Dynamic"