The Financial Year That Broke Every Forecast

Tariffs, Trump, the Iran conflict, soaring oil prices, an overvalued market that still refuses to crash - the 2026 financial year had it all. In this end-of-financial-year special, Capital Partners founder David Andrew and investment coordinator Nick Menegola join Aden Wilkins to break down what actually drove returns, what the so-called experts got wrong, and what investors should expect heading into the 2027 financial year. • Despite tariffs, geopolitical conflict, and relentless Trump volatility, markets delivered stellar returns for the 2026 financial year. • AI remained the dominant market theme - semiconductors and data centre stocks led the charge globally. • Korea returned over 150% for the year, driven almost entirely by two memory chip companies. Taiwan wasn't far behind. • Emerging markets returned 35% - the standout performer of the year and a strong case for staying diversified. • Gold is down 22% since the Iran conflict began. People were queuing up Martin Place to buy it. Most of them got it badly wrong. • Bitcoin is down 45% for the year despite every macro tailwind in its favour. • The ASX 300 returned just 6.2% but Australian value stocks returned 23.89%. • The Magnificent Seven barely fired a shot in the second half of the year. The other 493 S&P 500 companies did most of the heavy lifting. • Being underweight CSL and CBA alone added 2.5% to client portfolios versus the index. • Ray Dalio has predicted a market crash every year since 2016. Calling the top is a fool's game. • The year ahead: more Trump volatility, higher fuel prices, inflation for longer and AI CapEx will dominate the narrative. If you enjoyed this episode make sure to comment, like and subscribe to never miss an episode! ------------------------------------------------------------------ Follow David Andrew: LinkedIn:   / davidandrewfamilywealthadviser   Capital Partners: https://capital-partners.com.au/team-... Follow Nick Menegola: LinkedIn:   / nick-menegola-490b64123   Capital Partners: https://capital-partners.com.au/team-... Follow Aden Wilkins: LinkedIn:   / aden-wilkins-40b006105   Capital Partners: https://capital-partners.com.au/team-... Follow Capital Partners on socials: Facebook:   / capitalpartnerspwa   LinkedIn:   / capital-partners-3   Instagram:   / capitalpartnersprivatewealth   ------------------------------------------------------------------ Chapters: (0:00) Welcome & Wins of the Week (4:00) The Three Big Themes of the 2026 Financial Year (6:30) Markets Were Resilient - Despite the Headlines (8:30) Are Markets Overvalued? What the Data Says (10:30) Where Returns Actually Came From: Korea, Taiwan & Emerging Markets (14:00) The Gold Story: Queues at Martin Place and a 22% Drop (18:00) Bitcoin Down 45% - What Cryptocurrency Gets Wrong (21:00) The Scorecard: ASX, International & Emerging Markets Returns (27:00) Why Value and Small Beat the Market Again (30:00) CSL and CBA: How Being Underweight Added 2.5% to Portfolios (34:00) SanDisk Up 3,000%: The Case for Diversification (37:00) What to Expect in the 2027 Financial Year ------------------------------------------------------------------ The Purposeful Investor Podcast is a public service provided for Australian investors wanting to make smart decisions with their money, avoid costly mistakes, look after the people they care about, and have a great life! We draw on over 30 years of experience from David Andrew and the Capital Partners team. For more information on Capital Partners' award winning team, visit capital-partners.com.au. Have a question? Email us [email protected]. This episode provides general advice only. We do not consider your personal circumstances when we share this information. Always refer to your financial adviser for advice about your personal circumstances. Capital Partners Consulting Pty Ltd AFSL 227148 trading as Capital Partners Private Wealth Advisers ABN 27 086 670 788. Recorded and produced by Podwave Studios: https://podwavestudios.au/ #FinancialYearRecap #MarketUpdate #PurposefulInvestor #CapitalPartners #InvestingMyths #AustralianInvestor #FinancialAdvice #WealthManagement #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #DiversifiedPortfolio #AIInvesting #EmergingMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning