Exponential Smoothing Explained — Forecasting with a Smoothing Constant

Continue your operations and forecasting learning with this clear introduction to Exponential Smoothing, a widely used time series forecasting method. In this video, Operations University instructor Brent Bolton explains how exponential smoothing uses a smoothing constant (alpha) to balance historical demand with recent changes. You’ll learn how exponential smoothing differs from simple moving averages, how to select an appropriate alpha value, and how the smoothing constant affects forecast responsiveness. A step-by-step example demonstrates how to calculate future demand using exponential smoothing when limited historical data is available. 👉 Get Certified (Lean Six Sigma) Watch the full Lean Six Sigma playlist, then complete your certification at OperationsUniversity.org to earn your Lean Six Sigma certificate. 💰 Advance Your Credentials Certification & Pricing = Yellow Belt $99 • Green Belt $499 • Black Belt $899 — or all 3 for $1,199 (save when purchasing together). Employer packages: Bulk enrollments & reporting available. 💡 What You’ll Learn in This Video: • What exponential smoothing is and when to use it • How exponential smoothing fits into time series forecasting • The role of the smoothing constant (alpha) • How different alpha values affect forecast accuracy • How to calculate forecasts using exponential smoothing • A step-by-step exponential smoothing example 📢 Call to Action ✅ Subscribe for more Lean Six Sigma & operations content ✅ Visit OperationsUniversity.org to get certified ✅ Share this video with your forecasting or planning team #LeanSixSigma #Forecasting #ExponentialSmoothing #TimeSeries #OperationsManagement #SupplyChain #ContinuousImprovement