We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead

This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume. Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also outlines how he is positioning portfolios in response to these risks. Rosenberg Research https://www.rosenbergresearch.com Topics Covered Why markets may be a “bubble in behavior,” not technology The equity risk premium at zero and what that implies for future returns CAPE valuations and why long-term returns could be flat to negative The shift from economy driving markets to markets driving the economy The “silent contraction” beneath strong GDP headlines AI-driven productivity vs weakening labor markets The K-shaped economy across consumers, jobs, and capital spending Why the savings rate is the most important overlooked economic variable Inflation outlook: why this shock may be disinflationary, not persistent Portfolio construction in a low-return, high-uncertainty environment Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:42 Cycle thinking vs “perma bear” label 09:58 Learning probabilistic thinking and Plan B 15:52 The “sixth mega bubble” and investor behavior 20:36 Why valuations imply poor forward returns 25:08 The “silent contraction” beneath headline data 29:14 The savings rate and equity wealth effect 33:12 Fiscal deficits and artificial economic support 38:28 2027 outlook and shifting probabilities 43:02 Why expectations matter more than recession calls 45:40 Inflation shock vs wage-driven inflation 49:22 Productivity boom and disinflation forces 53:10 Why inflation may fall faster than expected 55:04 Portfolio positioning and diversification strategy 01:00:12 Tactical vs thematic investing framework 01:03:10 Final thoughts on risk, probabilities, and markets