川普割捨盟友竟是神佈局？甘願挨罵也要守台海！ 明居正 劉寶傑《寶傑怎麼說》@TaiwanLBJnews

00:00 Cracks in the US-Israel Alliance: Trump's Eagerness to Exit the Middle East Strategic Situation The long-standing "blood alliance" between the United States and Israel is facing a severe test due to the ceasefire storm. Trump and Vice President Vance have shown unprecedented impatience and condemnation towards the Netanyahu government. The core of this strategic withdrawal is not merely due to domestic inflation or electoral pressure in the United States, but rather to avoid becoming bogged down in the Middle East quagmire, thereby affecting the flexibility of its global strategy. The United States must extricate itself before the situation spirals out of control to address potential threats to Taiwan's security and ensure strategic initiative in the great power game. 03:31 Iran's Regional Hegemonic Ambitions: A Strategic Layout to Challenge Western Civilization Professor Ming Juzheng's analysis points out that Iran, as an ancient Persian civilization, possesses strong religious and national pride and is attempting to gain leadership in the Islamic world and regional oil hegemony. Iran has chosen to ally with Russia and China, using a "divide and conquer" approach to challenge the existing US-led international order and Western values. Through large-scale development of asymmetric warfare capabilities such as the Shahed drone, Iran has successfully fostered organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon, becoming a significant source of instability in the Middle East. 13:57 A Global Game: How the Middle East Storm Affects Taiwan Strait Security and the War of Attrition The US is eager to stop the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz primarily because it fears being overwhelmed in its role as a global policeman, particularly in preventing the CCP from launching a surprise attack in the Taiwan Strait. Modern warfare has evolved into a costly war of attrition. The disproportionate cost of the US's Tomahawk missiles (costing millions of dollars) compared to Iran's low-cost drones is severely testing the arms stockpiles and financial resilience of major powers. Trump must strike a balance between maintaining international order and resource depletion, even considering seeking industrial cooperation with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to address the potential threat of World War III. 24:14 Internal Power Struggle Between Iran and Israel: Power Struggles and Variables Behind the Agreement Internal power struggles within Iran have made diplomatic agreements unpredictable, with moderates and the Revolutionary Guard, which controls vast commercial interests, locked in fierce infighting between those advocating war and those advocating peace. Netanyahu, meanwhile, weighs his personal legal battles against the survival interests of the Israeli state, insisting on completely eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat even at the risk of antagonizing the United States. The situation in the Middle East will be intertwined with multiple variables, including military dictatorship, internal strife, and popular uprisings. The younger generation, who have experienced freedom, are a key force in Iran's future modernization. 20260624-1 Ming Ju-cheng, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University 🌍 🌎 🌏 [EBC ETtoday 24-Hour Live Broadcast] Click here:    • 【看盤不中斷】EBC東森財經股市24小時直播｜Taiwan EBC Financia...   Uninterrupted market analysis! Like and share with friends and family who want to learn about investment and financial management! 🔔Don't forget to turn on the little bell🔔