Why Iran’s Regime Endures—And How It Could Fall | Ze’ev Maghen | Special Briefing

What drives the Islamic Republic of Iran—and what might come after it? In this special briefing, Jonathan Silver speaks with Professor Ze’ev Maghen, a leading scholar of Islam and one of the most sophisticated analysts of Iranian history, to examine the deeper forces shaping Iran’s regime and its future. Together, they explore why common Western assumptions about Iran have proven inadequate, how theology—not economics—has shaped the regime’s durability, and the realistic political outcomes that could follow a collapse or transformation of the current system. As pressure on Iran intensifies, this conversation asks the essential questions: What do Iranians themselves believe? What futures are actually possible? And how should history and civilizational memory inform the way we think about regime change? This briefing was recorded live for Tikvah members on March 9. To join future briefings and access exclusive conversations like this one, become a member at ideas.tikvah.org. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 8:35 Why Does Israel Target Leaders? 11:23 The Ideological Development of Sunni Islam 14:37 The Continuing Revolution of Shia Islam 19:45 Is Regime Change Possible? Q&A 22:12 What Comes After the Regime? 28:15 The Role of Ethnic Minorities 33:28 The Lessons of the Revolution 37:23 Can Iran Fall Like the Soviet Union? 40:17 Is a Popular Uprising Still Possible? 45:02 The Unprecedented Israel-U.S. Friendship 48:01 The Future for the Jews of Iran Read Professor Maghen's essay on the theology and mindset of the Islamic Republic of Iran: https://ideas.tikvah.org/mosaic/essay... -- 👉 Subscribe to Tikvah's YouTube channel: https://buff.ly/CvNZC4i 👉 Listen to the latest episode of The Tikvah Podcast: https://buff.ly/to6XrlY 👉 Get the latest Tikvah content in your email inbox: https://tinyurl.com/4w8tjmvv 👉 Explore Tikvah's online content: https://buff.ly/NFpqGcn