Alasdair MacIntyre on the Sources of Unpredictability in Human Affairs (1972)

Audio recording of a 1972 lecture by Alasdair C. MacIntyre on the sources of unpredictability in human affairs at the American University Department of Philosophy in Washington D.C. Kay Chapel as part of the 15th Annual Bishop John F. Hurst Philosophy Lecture. This lecture explicates an early form of the argument, developed in MacIntyre’s 1972 paper “Predictability and Explanation in the Social Sciences,” that becomes the central claim of chapter 8 of After Virtue. Namely, that generalizations in social science lack predictive power or value. MacIntyre notes that while he is making what some listeners might consider a “rather arcane point” it is one that “has extremely important social implications.” Of his attempts to clarify a technical argument that he usually must “illustrate on a blackboard” MacIntyre delightfully says to the audience “You must forgive me, I am like a conjurer who has arrived on the stage without not only a hat, but without a rabbit either!” 00:00 Aim of the Talk 03:13 Natural Particulars 07:23 Social Particulars 14:34 Unpredictability of Conceptual Innovation 20:00 Unpredictability of Open Decisions 29:23 Unpredictability of Game-Theoretic Conflicts 32:31 Application to Social Particulars 36:41 Extrapolation from Trends 44:06 Regularities in Social Life 49:09 Judgment & Small Causes with Large Effects 53:38 Practical Consequences Source of the audio: https://dra.american.edu/islandora/ob... #philosophy #epistemology #philosophyofscience #science #determinism #historyofphilosophy