Craig Hemke – Unusual Intra-day Swings In Gold/Silver Since Last Week - Post-War & Post-Fed Meeting

In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to analyze the unusual intra-day swings in the #preciousmetals complex ever since the signing of the US/Iran MOU ending the war, and since Kevin Warsh chaired his first FED meeting and addressed the markets last week. Technical Levels to Watch: • Craig comments on the break-down in #gold and #silver below the 200-day moving average, resulting in weakening pricing momentum. • This is creating the potential for gold to dip below it’s double-bottom around $4,100 and silver to retest or dip below its double bottom around $61. • Even if gold breaks below $4,000 into the mid $3,000s or if Silver breaks $61 and heads down to the $54 support level from last falls “double-top,” Craig points out that still would not invalidate the larger bull market trend of the last few years. • He points out we may need that last capitulation move this summer to wash out any remaining weak hands, and to then base and bring in the new buyers that cause shorts to cover and begin a new upleg. • We review again the very low “open interest” levels on the COT report, and how this lower level of market participation can cause unusual intra-day price swings in both directions. Kevin Warsh’s First #Fed Meeting and Press Conference: • We contrasted the outlook and approach Kevin Warsh outlined last week versus the approach to data collection and forecasting that his predecessor Jerome Powell had taken. • The markets took Warsh’s comments "this committee will deliver price stability," to be a hawkish hold, since he indicated focusing on the higher inflation readings. • The Fed funds futures are now anticipating 1-2 rate hikes this year versus the initially market anticipated rate cuts, coming into this year. The Macroeconomic Fundamentals Haven’t Changed: • Sovereign debt remains at record levels and most nations can not endure interest rates that go up to drastically. • Throughout history, #centralbanks have opted for printing more money and driving interest rates meaningfully lower, to inflate their way out of economic challenges, and to pay off higher interest debt with lower-rate debt. • Even if we see some initial hawkish rate hikes, Craigs doesn’t anticipate that we’d have long to wait after that before monetary policy adjusts course in the opposite direction, in a more dovish playbook. • Overall, central banks continue to add gold to their balance sheets versus adding more US or foreign treasuries. • We also noted that many individuals and financial institutions have been rotating some of their bond holdings into the precious metals complex. • All that really changed over the last few months was the black swan of a war in the Middle East; and now that it appears to be winding down, we’ll see if the prior pre-war trends reassert themselves over the fullness of time. . . Click below to follow Craig's analysis over at TF Metals Report: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/ . . Visit our new Substack for a summary of this interview - https://kereport.substack.com/ . Click here to follow Shad's market commentary on Substack: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.... . Listen to the podcast on our website: https://www.kereport.com/ Subscribe to our Podcast on Spotify: https://rebrand.ly/Spotify_subscribe . . For price quotes on metals and commodities visit - https://clearcommodity.net/ . . Follow us on social media: 🔗   / thekereport   . . Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.