ASB Chief Economist: Forget Rate Cuts, NZ Mortgage Pain Is Just Starting

ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley delivers the warning most NZ business owners do not want to hear: rate cuts are over and the Reserve Bank is likely to raise rates as soon as September. He calls this a 9 out of 10 shock, worse than the GFC. If your mortgage is coming up for refix, this is the episode you need before you sign anything. Episode Partners AcademyEx Get ahead with AI https://discover.academyex.com/mina Pwrfully Get your story to the people who matter https://www.pwrfully.com Follow Nick Tuffley ASB Economic Research https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/econo... Follow Me Mina on YouTube    / @notesfromtheexecutivepodcast   Mina on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4QgZGJd... Mina on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast... Mina on Instagram   / minaamso   Mina on LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/in/minaamso Time stamps 0:00 – How big is this shock? Comparing crises (Asian crisis, GFC, Covid, war) 0:45 – Who is Nick Tuffley? Chief economist introduction 1:17 – Why watch this episode? What you’ll learn 2:01 – The listener in mind: stressed NZ business owner with a mortgage 2:40 – “Less optimistic”: how the 2026 outlook has changed 3:25 – What is the current global energy shock? 4:38 – Rating past shocks vs this one: why this is a “9 out of 10” 6:09 – 20% of global oil and gas offline: what that means in practice 8:38 – How NZ households and businesses are already feeling it 10:00 – Fuel costs, freight, shipping and export disruption 11:14 – Covid vs this crisis: why this time is harder to fix with policy 14:20 – Inflation risk and memories of 2022–24 15:34 – If the war ended today: how long until fuel prices ease? 17:18 – $3.50+ for petrol, $3.90+ for diesel: price impacts explained 18:02 – Our deep dependence on oil and why it’s so hard to replace 19:10 – Ad break: disruptive technologies, AI, Sora and blockchain 21:45 – “We’re fragile”: NZ’s starting point and why RBNZ may hike 22:32 – Why raise interest rates? Plain‑English explanation 24:23 – Fuel vs interest rates: what’s really driving prices up? 25:42 – CPI basket explained: how inflation is actually measured 26:50 – Wage–price spiral: why the Reserve Bank is worried 29:09 – Forecasting interest rates: why nobody really knows 30:00 – Scenario planning for businesses, not date‑picking 30:29 – Which sectors are hit hardest: transport, logistics, agri, manufacturing 32:40 – Mortgages in uncertain times: generic guidance and trade‑offs 36:08 – Fixing vs floating: risk tolerance and peace of mind 38:38 – “Feels like a lottery”: framing mortgage decisions as risk management 39:54 – Matching loan terms to life plans and rental leases 40:52 – How banks test your servicing at higher “stress” rates 43:18 – Nick’s forecasting track record and awards 45:24 – Growth forecasts: from 2.5–3% down to ~1–1.5% 47:29 – Quarterly outlook for 2026 and why data lags so much 49:47 – Two scenarios: war improves vs gets worse 50:00 – If the shock drags on: oil, gas, fertilizer and farming impacts 51:49 – Who goes without? Developing world, Asia and energy scarcity 55:00 – Can other countries replace Middle Eastern oil? Limits and lags 56:27 – Risks of social unrest and priority fuel use 57:59 – How fragile the world feels: a few governments, global consequences 59:25 – From post‑WWII stability to geopolitical instability 1:00:00 – Political shocks vs economic/health shocks: a new risk era 1:01:08 – Globalization, free trade and why NZ can’t easily “go it alone” 1:02:36 – Final thoughts: scenario planning and focusing on what you can control 1:04:24 – Don’t get lost in the headlines: understand your real business risks 1:05:10 – Where to find Nick’s work and closing thanks