TS44

Read the full analysis and more data-driven insights: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/ Become a Common Sense Member for R99/pm https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subs... In this episode of Talking Sense, the panel starts with a detailed discussion of South Africa’s by election trends put together by Gareth Van Onselen and what they reveal about the direction of national politics. The conversation focuses on long run data across more than 20 years of by elections, showing how the ANC’s support has steadily declined in metros and across the country. The panel discusses how analysts use thousands of by election data points to model national outcomes, and what this suggests about the ANC’s likely electoral range going into the next national contest. They also explore whether the DA peaked between 2016 and 2021, and what the structural limits of opposition growth may be. From there, the discussion moves into broader questions about South Africa’s political economy, including the relationship between voter behaviour, economic performance, and the growing sense of enclavisation where citizens increasingly solve problems outside of the state. The episode then turns to the 30 June immigration deadline and the risk of unrest. The panel discusses why the anticipated wave of violence did not materialise, highlighting the role of state preparedness, private security coordination, and intelligence driven disruption of potential mobilisation networks. Internationally, the conversation shifts to the United Kingdom, where a major wealth report is unpacked showing significant real wealth declines driven by inflation, taxation, weak growth and capital flight. The panel contrasts this with other global economies that have continued to expand household wealth over the same period. Finally, the episode returns to South Africa’s long term economic trajectory, asking what the country might have looked like if it had maintained 5.0% growth after 2008. The discussion shows how this would have dramatically lowered unemployment and doubled per capita income, before ending with a focus on Johannesburg as a potential high upside turnaround story if governance reform takes hold. Chapters 00:00 Influence and Espionage: The Role of Privileged Contacts 03:55 By-Elections and Political Trends in South Africa 07:47 Property Prices and Economic Predictions 10:43 The Calm Before the Storm: June 30th Events 15:39 Political Strategies and Leadership Changes 19:36 Controversies in Agriculture: The Foot and Mouth Disease Crisis 30:27 The Future of Afrikaners in South Africa 34:51 UK Wealth Loss and Economic Insights 52:27 Voter Registration and Turnout in South Africa 01:00:29 Imagining a Thriving South African Economy 01:08:44 The Economic Potential of Johannesburg