El plan OCULTO detrás del Milei político: desarrollo, poder y supervivencia | Andrés Malamud

Does the ruling party's victory make reelection in 2027 a foregone conclusion? No. This analysis explains why Milei is the "natural candidate"... but that doesn't guarantee his reelection. Presidential politics are surprising: almost all recent presidents in the world and in the region emerged from under the radar (from Trump to Bolsonaro, from Kirchner to Kirchner, from Alberto Fernández to Macri). The hard fact: until 2015, reelection in Latin America hovered around 95%; today, the speed of the economic cycle, commodities, and the Fed's interest rate move the needle more than labels. A brutal rule: high commodity prices + low interest rates help you get reelected even if you're "bad"; low commodity prices + high interest rates make you lose even if you're "good." Regarding the direction: although he wouldn't call it a "plan," the ruling party envisions a development model based on comparative advantages: energy (Vaca Muerta), minerals, the cold climate of Patagonia, and distance from conflicts for data centers and logistics. The idea: a smaller state + private investment + a US financial bridge to reach 2030 with the economy on "pilot." An invitation to development or a new dependency? Open debate. Governability is another key: winning without a party is possible; governing without a party, difficult. A "shield" is needed: legislative, popular, or external (financial support). In parallel, the party system is changing: new parties are winning national elections, but the same old parties still hold sway in the provinces. And the campaign has mutated: territorial vs. virtual, with celebrities providing name recognition. The electoral map is also being reshaped: broad non-Peronism vs. persistent Peronism; votes based more on class than ideology; and a ruling party that was cross-cutting in 2023 and is now consolidating its support among higher-income sectors while losing ground among the poorest. Conclusion: 2027 is not a foregone conclusion. Between the real economy, financing, political organization, and the surprise factor of the presidential system, reelection is possible, but not a foregone conclusion. Subscribe to the channel: https://bit.ly/Infobae_ Infobae Live was created with the goal of reporting the news objectively, without ideology, and with exclusive information, using simple and clear language for all audiences. Watch our two daily broadcasts, Monday through Friday From 9 AM to 12 PM with Gonzalo Sánchez, Carolina Amoroso, Cecilia Boufflet, and Ramón Indart From 6 PM to 9 PM with Jesica Bossi, Virginia Porcella, Federico Mayol, and Diego Iglesias #infobae #infobaevivo #news #diegoiglesias #jesicabossi #virginiaporcella #federicomayol #news Stay informed, share, and interact on our social media: TikTok:   / infobae   Instagram:   / infobae   Facebook:   / infobae   Twitter:   / infobae