Approach to Bayesian Calculations for ABGC and ABMGG Exams

In this video, I showcase a framework for answering any question involving a Bayesian calculation. This 5-step framework can be remembered with the mnemonic "Hot PinC JeeP." This mnemonic helps us form a table that will allow us to calculate the posterior probabilities that are often asked on exams. "H": Hypothesis - On exams, there will usually be 2 hypotheses, though in theory you can have more. The hypotheses form the columns of our table. Hypotheses should be mutually exclusive & collectively exhaustive. Example: "carrier" & "non-carrier" are the two hypotheses in this example. There are 4 "PinC JeeP" probabilities in every Bayesian calculation. These probabilities form the rows of our table and include: "P": Prior probability "C": Conditional probability "J": Joint probability "P": Posterior probability Here is a link to the paper "Bayesian Analysis and Risk Assessment in Genetic Counseling and Testing." I highly recommend reading it, as there are several examples in addition to the one I explain in this video. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti... Newsletter post with 2 board-style questions on this topic: https://studyrare.substack.com/p/2022... Please consider supporting my rare disease education efforts by subscribing to the StudyRare newsletter, where I share board-style questions for ABMGG and ABGC exams each week: https://studyrare.substack.com/ You can also support this channel by subscribing to this YouTube channel, following me on Twitter/X (@studyrare), or buying me a coffee: https://ko-fi.com/studyrare Thank you! Daniel