Q2 2026 Market Update | Financial Commute (Ep. 196)

U.S. stocks were down almost 5% in the first quarter. Then up 15% in the second. On paper, the first half of 2026 looks fine. But underneath those numbers, there is a concentration in semiconductor stocks that just had their best quarter in history, an AI spending wave that is running well ahead of the revenue it is producing, margin borrowing at all-time highs, and a consumer savings rate approaching low 2007 levels. In this episode of Financial Commute, Chief Executive Officer Jeff Sarti and Chief Investment Officer Meghan Pinchuk walk through what happened in Q2 2026, what the signals in the data are telling them, and how they are thinking about portfolio positioning when the market is this disconnected from the fundamentals. Timestamps 0:00 – Cold open: semiconductor stocks just had their best quarter ever 1:16 – Welcome and Q2 market recap: stocks up 10% for the first half of the year 2:37 – The big story: semiconductor stocks up 80% in a single quarter 3:38 – Buyer beware: the boom and bust cycle of computer chips 5:41 – The AI data center buildout and the companies spending hundreds of billions 7:41 – When does the spending actually translate into revenue? 8:51 – Competition and depreciation: two reasons the AI spend may not be sustainable 11:21 – Record margin borrowing and the rise of leveraged ETFs 13:43 – Stock market valuations at or near all time highs 16:01 – Gold pulls back after a massive run, but the long term thesis holds 17:54 – The national debt and why the government keeps debasing the dollar 19:48 – The Fed's impossible position: inflation up, economy sluggish 21:37 – Closing thoughts: why diversification beyond stocks and bonds matters now Questions This Episode Answers How did the stock market perform in the second quarter of 2026? Why did semiconductor stocks go up so much in 2026? Is the AI spending by big tech companies sustainable? What are leveraged ETFs and why are they a concern? Why did gold pull back in early 2026 if the thesis is still intact? What is a K-shaped economy and why does it matter for investors? Schedule an introductory call with an advisor: https://www.bit.ly/mortonintroductory... Or visit our website to learn more: https://www.mortonwealth.com Information presented herein is for educational purpose only and is not intended as investment advice. Some investments and themes referenced in this presentation may not be included in all client portfolios. Client performance will vary based on individual portfolio holdings, allocations, and investment objectives. Performance discussions generally reflects index returns, which are not directly investable and do not include fees or expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no investment strategy can guarantee a profit or avoid loss. #q22026 #quarterlymarketupdate #2026economy #economy #investor