Crowded or Lonely? The Statistics of Alien Life

New research paper from the Cool Worlds Lab! Today we explore the implications of a classic result in statistics but applied to alien life for the first time. The result implies a startling conclusion, the cosmos is either teeming with intelligent civilizations, or we're essentially alone. Join us today as explore how this works and what the implications might be. Written & presented by Prof. David Kipping. → Support our research: https://www.coolworldslab.com/support → Get merch: https://teespring.com/stores/cool-wor... → Check out our podcast:    / @coolworldspodcast   THANK-YOU to D. Smith, M. Sloan, L. Sanborn, C. Bottaccini, D. Daughaday, A. Jones, S. Brownlee, N. Kildal, Z. Star, E. West, T. Zajonc, C. Wolfred, L. Skov, G. Benson, A. De Vaal, M. Elliott, B. Daniluk, S. Vystoropskyi, S. Lee, Z. Danielson, C. Fitzgerald, C. Souter, M. Gillette, T. Jeffcoat, J. Rockett, D. Murphree, M. Sanford, T. Donkin, K. Myers, A. Schoen, K. Dabrowski, J. Black, R. Ramezankhani, J. Armstrong, K. Weber, S. Marks, L. Robinson, S. Roulier, B. Smith, J. Cassese, J. Kruger, S. Way, P. Finch, S. Applegate, L. Watson, E. Zahnle, N. Gebben, J. Bergman, E. Dessoi, C. Macdonald, M. Hedlund, P. Kaup, C. Hays, W. Evans, D. Bansal, J. Curtin, J. Sturm, RAND Corp., M. Donovan, N. Corwin, M. Mangione, K. Howard, L. Deacon, G. Metts, R. Provost, B. Sigurjonsson, G. Fullwood, B. Walford, J. Boyd, N. De Haan, J. Gillmer, R. Williams, E. Garland, A. Leishman, A. Phan Le, R. Lovely, M. Spoto, A. Steele, K. Yarbrough, A. Cornejo, D. Compos, F. Demopoulos, G. Bylinsky, J. Werner, B. Pearson, S. Thayer, T. Edris, B. Seeley, F. Blood, M. O'Brien, P. Muzyka, D. Lee, J. Sargent, M. Czirr, F. Krotzer, I. Williams, J. Sattler, J. Smallbon, B. Reese, J. Yoder, O. Shabtay, X. Yao, S. Saverys, M. Pittelli, A. Nimmerjahn, C. Seay, D. Johnson, L. Cunningham, M. Morrow, M. Campbell, R. Strain, B. Devermont, Y. Muheim & A. Stark. REFERENCES ► Kipping & Geraint 2024, "Do SETI Optimists Have a Fine-Tuning Problem?", International Journal of Astrobiology, submitted (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Oxsj...) ► Jaynes 1968, "Prior Probabilities", IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics , 4, 227: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/... CHAPTERS 0:00 Aliens! 1:00 Jaynes' Experiment 3:33 What about Drake? 6:31 Birth-Death Balance 9:51 Bridging to Jaynes 11:04 Challenging the Optimists 13:17 Just Sample More Stars? 15:39 Disequilibria 17:22 The Case for SETI 19:31 Outro & Credits #Aliens #AreWeAlone #CoolWorlds