Ep.7. POR QUÉ COLAPSAN LAS CIVILIZACIONES

In 1377, an Arab philosopher wrote that civilizations do not die from external invasions but from the loss of their internal cohesion. Six hundred years later, a Russian evolutionary biologist predicted, ten years in advance, the peak of political instability we are experiencing today. And he was right. We are not at war, but we live under a constant barrage of disinformation while the post-war international order is being blown to bits. The climate crisis continues, cheap energy is running out, and soft and hard invasions are being deployed for the critical materials the system needs. In our region, the destruction of social cohesion, the advance of extractivism, and the increase in inequality are not accidents of the current situation: they follow a precise historical pattern that has already occurred before. In this episode of Planet B, I analyze the work of three researchers who, through completely different paths, arrived at the same conclusion about why civilizations collapse: • Ibn Khaldun (14th century) and the loss of social cohesion (asabiyyah). • Joseph Tainter (1980s) and the diminishing returns to complexity. • Peter Turchin (cliodynamics) and the mathematical model that predicted the political instability of this decade ten years in advance. In the next episode, I conclude with Luke Kemp, who studied 324 historical cases of collapse and published his findings in his book Goliath's Curse in 2025. The difference between a conspiracy theory and a real analysis lies in their foundations. One proposes a fictional culprit; the other dismantles the structure of the collapse to understand how it works. What these thinkers explain is not abstract theory. It is exactly what we are experiencing today in Argentina, in the region, and in the world. CHAPTERS 01:03 Introduction - Rome and the Pattern of Collapse 04:36 Ibn Khaldun and the Loss of Cohesion 07:18 Joseph Tainter and the Cost of Complexity 10:24:XX Peter Turchin and the Arithmetic of Collapse 14:48 Closing and Next Episode PREVIOUS EPISODES MENTIONED Episode 3 - Thomas Piketty and Inequality Episode 4 - Reverse Trickle-Down Episode 6 - Andean Region SOURCES Ibn Khaldun, Introduction to Universal History (Muqaddimah, 1377) Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988) Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord (2016) and End Times (2023) ECLAC, Social Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don't miss the next episode. #PlanetB #Collapse #Civilizations #Polycrisis #Argentina