How to spot BAD Player Development

#nba Let's analyze a few players who were not highly regarded in the draft but became some of the biggest stars in the NBA by finding themselves in the right place at the right time with the right attitude. First, let's talk about Marc Gasol. Marc was not a hot rookie prospect in the 2007 NBA draft. The Lakers drafted him 48th overall and didn’t plan on signing him right away. Marc was still playing for Girona in Spain and never signed a contract with the Lakers. He was seen as pure potential because there were a lot of rough edges to his game. A lot of what drew teams' attention to Marc was Pau, his older brother, a big-time prospect in the 2001 draft who won rookie of the year in 2002. Teams thought Marc was worth taking a flier on for the potential that he might have half the talent of his older brother. Marc's first key to success was not rushing into the NBA. The year between Gasol being drafted and him signing an NBA contract, he won the Spanish league MVP. Before playing an NBA game, he was a Euro league champion, a Spanish league champion, and an ACB MVP. Had he joined the 07-08 Lakers, a team with three centers already, he wouldn't have gotten the reps needed to improve. Chris Wallace, Grizzlies GM, believes Marc would have been a top-10 pick in 2008. Gasol proved himself by being an All-Rookie second team player. Another factor was the trade that brought Marc to the Grizzlies. The Lakers had Marc’s draft rights, and the Grizzlies were trying to establish the grit and grind era. They traded Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, two first-round picks, and Marc Gasol’s draft rights. Though criticized at the time, the trade worked out as Marc got the opportunity to develop further. He started for a rebuilding team, got 30 minutes a game, and transformed his body through conditioning. By his 8th season, he was averaging almost 20 points a game and was named Defensive Player of the Year. Gasol’s success came from not being in a position to defer to others. Every team he was on needed him to be the main guy, a scenario not every player responds to well. Unlike NFL quarterbacks who often benefit from sitting behind veterans, NBA players can afford to fail and learn without dire health consequences. Another example is Dirk Nowitzki. Drafted 9th overall in 1998, Dirk's rookie season was rough. He averaged 8 points, 3 rebounds, and shot 40% from the field, struggling defensively. However, in his second season, he started 81 games, averaged 18 points, and shot 46% from the field and 38% from three. Dirk’s turnaround came from the unwavering belief of Don Nelson, the Mavericks' head coach, who encouraged him to play his own game and not emulate others. Once Dirk adapted to the NBA's speed and physicality, he excelled by slowing the game down and creating his own shots. Contrasting these successes is James Wiseman, the 2nd pick in the 2020 NBA draft. Warriors owner Joe Lacob saw Wiseman as a once-in-a-decade talent. Despite a decent rookie season, injury setbacks and the Warriors' championship success without him stunted his development. The Warriors' focus shifted to Poole, Wiggins, and Kuminga, leaving Wiseman an afterthought. Playing only 262 minutes in the 2022-23 season, his per 100 possessions net rating was a disappointing -19. Wiseman was traded to the Pistons, a move validating that the Warriors had moved on. Wiseman’s failure in Golden State stemmed from being drafted to a good team after a down season, not a rebuilding one. The Warriors’ established core meant there was no rush to develop him. In February 2023, Wiseman was traded for Gary Payton II, showing the Warriors' preference for proven contributors. Now with the Indiana Pacers, Wiseman has a chance to prove himself on a quality team. He just signed a 2-year minimum contract with a club option, the worst guaranteed contract in the NBA, but he's still in the league and has an opportunity to thrive. I remain hopeful for Wiseman, believing he loves basketball and cares about his career.