Why are Indian elections so unpredictable?

About the talk: Indian elections continue to surprise us. While caste, religion, and community remain central to Indian politics, frequent electoral swings and shifting party loyalties reveal that identity alone cannot explain voting behaviour. Drawing on village-level election data, national surveys, and extensive fieldwork, the discussion shall reflect on the nature of weak party organization and over dependence on local influencers which results in the under-mobilization of poorer voters. This creates a "reciprocity trap" that binds parties and local elites together, leaving many citizens beyond the reach of party politics during elections. Speaker: Pradeep K Chhibber, Professor of Political Science and Indo-American Community Chair in India Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. US Discussants: Barkha Dutt, Senior Journalist and Founder MoJo Story; Roshan Kishore, Political Economy and Data Editor, Hindustan Times Moderator: Rahul Verma, Associate professor of political science at the Law School, Shiv Nadar University and Fellow at Centre for Policy Research (CPR) 0:00-3:02 Introduction 3:03-18:13 Understanding Indian Elections 18:14-31:13 The "Reciprocity Trap" Explained 31:14-54:18 On impact of welfare, technology, and rallies on voter behavior 54:19-1:08:26 Response and Debate 1:08:27-1:35:12 Audience Q&A 1:35:13-1:36:03 Closing Remarks