Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies

As countries develop, their agrifood systems transform, with more incomes and job creation generated beyond the farm. Eventually, downstream agrifood systems sectors, like food processing and services, become even more important than primary agriculture itself. This transformation process is strongly associated with broader economic development. In a series of case studies, IFPRI and its research partners have studied the pace and pattern of agricultural transformation within USAID’s Feed-the-Future (FTF) countries. The studies use a novel indicator of agrifood system incomes and employment and further decompose these across major agricultural value chains. Four lessons emerge from the analysis: First, off-farm growth is successfully driving agricultural transformation in most FTF countries. Second, agricultural exports are highly concentrated within a narrow set of value chains, and this limits their ability to drive broad-based growth. Third, value chains that supply domestic markets have dominated the transformation process. Finally, promoting import-substituting value chains could drive even faster transformation in the FTF countries. The country studies highlight the importance of focusing on broader agrifood system development rather than agriculture alone and emphasize the importance of domestic market opportunities for future agrifood system transformation.