"The Gulf Cleaned Up America's Mess with Iran"

"I think the UAE is probably the most interesting case because it has shifted significantly along the continuum. At the beginning of the war, Oman was on one side, taking a very clear position: neutrality, diplomacy, and the view that negotiation was the only viable way forward. At the other end of the spectrum was the UAE, which at the time was talking about defiance and projecting strength. Its posture was centred on coercion and deterrence. Now, however, the UAE appears to have moved. It has reportedly pulled $3 billion from Pakistan as punishment for Islamabad taking a more conciliatory approach towards Iran. At the same time, Abu Dhabi now seems to have come around to embracing the MOU and the wider diplomatic process, including support for Qatari efforts. What is particularly interesting is that there are clearly tensions within Abu Dhabi, and also between Abu Dhabi and the northern Emirates, over how to deal with Iran. MBZ’s position has been one of defiance, strength, and deterrence, rather than entanglement and engagement. Then you have Tahnoun, who has suddenly reappeared on the surface. He had been largely absent from public view for months, but has now returned to lead on this policy issue. Tahnoun’s strategic mindset has always been built around entanglement, engagement, and weaponised interdependence through commercial networks. This approach shaped the UAE’s earlier policy: allowing the IRGC to do business in the UAE in the expectation that, in return, the UAE would not be attacked. That equation clearly did not ultimately deliver the desired outcome. Nonetheless, there was no obvious alternative. Tahnoun’s argument appears to have been that the UAE cannot win this militarily. Israel is not going to win the war on behalf of the UAE, because Israel cannot win the war for itself. The United States does not want an all-out war. The GCC partners around the UAE do not want a war either. As a result, Abu Dhabi has little choice but to come to the negotiating table. It therefore seems that Tahnoun has won this internal debate, at least for now, over MBZ’s earlier and more assertive approach. The underlying calculation appears to be that a united GCC position may ultimately serve the UAE’s national interest far better than a situation in which everyone pulls in different directions" (C) MEE 2026