Бюджет на 59 долларов оказался мифом: чем грозит России обвал нефтяного экспорта и потеря Индии

Gasoline rationing, queues at gas stations, and burning refineries—for the first time since the war, the fuel crisis in Russia has reached a level that can no longer be hidden behind cheerful statistics. In this segment, economist Oleg Ustenko analyzes the storylines of how strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces are devastating Russia's oil industry, while political analyst Yuriy Romanenko provides fresh evidence—from gasoline rationing in Tyumen to completely blacked-out gas stations in occupied Crimea. The starting point is the assessment of renowned oil and gas market analyst Mikhail Krutikhin: the country is teetering on the brink of a fuel crisis, and it's already very close. In Tyumen, where oil is extracted, sales have been limited to 40 liters of gasoline and 80 liters of diesel per station. In Crimea, officials are bluntly stating that there is no fuel and that it won't be available anytime soon. Ustenko then develops the logic of the collapse. Oil is the lifeblood of the economy, and when supply chains are disrupted, everything comes to a standstill: from pizza delivery to parts shipments between factories. The first line of attack is ports and seaborne exports: exports have fallen from approximately five to three and a half million barrels per day, and the pipeline to China is already jammed. The second line of attack is oil refining and storage: targeting refineries is profitable because oil that has nowhere to go also has nowhere to refine. The key image in this entire conversation is of a resource that exists but cannot be used. A well can't be pumped at half capacity: it's either zero or one. And restarting a shut-down refinery requires equipment that Russians are physically unable to buy or import due to sanctions on the oil and gas sector. This is a blow to the budget. The deficit, which was around $50 billion in the first quarter, risks reaching $80 billion by mid-year. On June 17, the Indian market, which accounted for up to 70% of supplies, closed: with tankers queuing in the Persian Gulf, Russia's three and a half million barrels simply lost interest. Ustenko dismisses the myth of a budget designed for $59 per barrel: this figure was based on exports of five million barrels by sea, which no longer exist. The conversation finally turns to politics: the security bloc has grown faster than the military because the Kremlin needs a whip in case of discontent, but no one knows the population's true resilience. The historical rhyme with October 1993 and tanks at the White House leads to a harsh conclusion: the government is increasingly acting blindly and is truly losing control of the situation. Watch the full video:    • Новая геоэкономика мира: где место Украины...   00:00 Krutikhin: The crisis is just around the corner 00:48 Tyumen: Gasoline and diesel fuel limits 01:23 Oil is the lifeblood of Russia's economy 02:05 Ukrainian Armed Forces strike ports and logistics 03:33 Second line: strikes on oil refineries 05:23 Equipment under sanctions cannot be replaced 07:44 Budget deficit grows to 80 billion 08:07 India has not purchased oil since June 17 10:21 The $59 budget is a myth 12:06 The security bloc as the Kremlin's whip 13:42 Rhyme with October 1993 14:29 The Kremlin is losing control of the situation Merchant can be purchased here: https://medoyid.com Monobank bank for the studio https://send.monobank.ua/jar/5C86fTjsiU Become a channel sponsor:    / @yuriyromanenko_ukraine   You can support the channel: To my Patreon   / romanenkoyuriy   to PrivatBank card 4731 1856 1467 7968 to Monobank card 5375 4114 2205 9084 PayPal [email protected] Follow my channels on social media: My Telegram channel https://t.me/romanenko_dns My Viber channel https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQA8fdi5... My Facebook page:   / yuriy.romanenko1977   My business page on Facebook   / yuriy.romanenko   My Instagram page:   / ​​   My Twitter page   / shan_yan   My TikTok page   / yuriyrom77   "Hvylya" Facebook page   / hvylya   #ukraine #ukraine #romanenko