FOMC金利据え置き、日銀1％でも円安。市場が見た「次の金利差」

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%. At first glance, this should have narrowed the U.S.-Japan policy-rate gap and supported the yen. But instead, the yen weakened, falling into the upper 160-yen range against the dollar. Why did the yen fall even after the BOJ raised rates? Why did the dollar strengthen even though the Fed did not hike? In this video, we break down the latest FOMC decision, the Fed’s economic projections, the dot plot, and the BOJ’s rate hike to explain what markets were really watching: not today’s rate gap, but the “next rate gap.” The key point is that foreign exchange markets do not move only on current policy rates. They also price in what the Fed and the BOJ may do next — and whether the future U.S.-Japan rate gap will widen or narrow. One of the most important details is hidden in the Fed’s dot plot. The FOMC vote was unanimous at 12–0, but the 2026 year-end rate projections were split: 9 participants pointed toward higher rates, while 9 did not. Meanwhile, the BOJ raised rates to 1%, but that move had already been widely expected by markets. As a result, its impact on the yen was limited. Going forward, the dollar-yen exchange rate will depend not only on the Fed, and not only on the BOJ. The key question is which central bank moves first, by how much, and how far. What You’ll Learn ・What the Fed’s rate hold really means ・The hidden 9–9 split inside the Fed’s dot plot ・Why the BOJ raised rates to 1% ・Why the yen weakened despite a narrower policy-rate gap ・The key turning points for U.S. and Japanese interest rates ・Four possible scenarios for USD/JPY ・What to watch regarding currency intervention Disclaimer This video is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice and does not recommend buying or selling any currency, bond, stock, or financial product. Exchange rates and interest rates can change rapidly depending on economic data, central bank communication, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment. Hashtags #FOMC #BOJ #Yen #USDJPY #FederalReserve #BankOfJapan #InterestRates #Forex #DollarYen #MonetaryPolicy