EV Transition Reality Check: Vehicle Lifespans Push the Timeline Beyond 2050

The EV transition is real, but vehicle lifespans mean petrol, diesel and gasoline cars will remain on roads well beyond 2050. While EV sales are rising, the rate has slowed, and even in countries like Norway where the transition already looks almost complete — at least if you only look at new-car sales, vehicles already on the road shows there is still a way to go. This video looks at why the full replacement of combustion-engine vehicles will take much longer than many forecasts imply. Vehicle lifespans, fleet growth, used-car exports, scrappage rates and global differences in vehicle ownership all mean that combustion-engine cars are likely to remain in the global fleet for decades after EVs dominate new sales. The question is not whether EVs are winning. The question is how long it takes for that win to move from new-car sales into the global vehicle fleet. Topics covered include: EV market share in Norway Why new-car sales can mislead Global vehicle fleet growth Vehicle lifespans and scrappage rates Why petrol and diesel cars can remain after EV sales dominate The role of e-fuels, hybrids and generator-equipped EVs Why the EV transition may be faster in sales than in the real-world fleet Links: PHEVs: How a "Holy War" led to 2 Very Different Types:    • PHEVs: How a "Holy War" led to 2 Very Diff...   E-Fuels (video in final edit and to be posted within 3 days) (This Video draws upon information from extensive research during the production of this and previous videos and papers, but if any mentioned links are not yet listed here, please comment, so they can be added) 00:00 - Introduction 01:39 - Recap: Progress so far. 05:11 - Future predictions for new EVs 10:08 - Why combustion beyond 2050? 13:25 - Transition acceleration options 19:42 - E-Fuels, GEEVs & Backlash 22:25 - Conclusion: Change is needed if 2050 matters.