How Capital Cycles Create 100 Baggers In Plain Sight

We sat down with Django Davidson, portfolio manager at Hosking Partners, to discuss the capital cycle framework, one of the most sensible lenses for investing in mining and commodities. Hosking manages ~US$8B in capital, using a model honed over 40 years. Django's approach is rooted in supply-side analysis, contrarian positioning, and the discipline to average into cycles. We believe this approach to be one of the most effective methods for natural resource investing. In this chat, Django covers: • The capital cycle framework — what it is & where it came from • Why supply is measurable but demand is storytelling • Why Implats returned 100x over a decade - what that tells us about today • His deep dive into PGMs — the geology, the geography, the EV narrative, and why these companies still trade below replacement cost • How BHP and Rio’s iron ore assets have generated better returns on capital than Microsoft over 30 years • Why mining represents just 1.6% of the S&P 500 and what that signals for the decade ahead • The case for natural diamonds • Where uranium sits in the cycle, and why he is cautious at current prices Follow Django: LinkedIn -   / django-davidson-332b9867   If you enjoyed this conversation, subscribe and share it with someone who thinks about cycles the way we do. Episode recorded: 03/25/26 📰 THE DIRECTOR'S SPECIAL Join 16k+ subscribers to the Director’s Special: one daily email with all the news that matters in mining https://www.moneyofmine.com/subscribe ------------------------------------------------------- ▶️ CHAPTER TIMESTAMPS 0:00 - Supply Over Stories 1:30 - Capital Cycle Origins 8:50 - Incentives and Contrarian Guardrails 17:30 - PGMs Case Study Deep Dive 38:30 - Mining Incentives and Discipline 43:40 - Diamonds DeBeers and Lab Grown 46:20 - Diamond Valuations and 10x Bets 57:00 - Uranium Refining and Final Takeaways ------------------------------------------------------- 🤝 OUR PARTNERS Thank you to the mining services businesses that make this show possible: Sandvik Ground Support – The only ground support you’ll ever need http://www.rocktechnology.sandvik/gro... Focus by Marketech – All your mining news and market needs in one powerful platform | 10-day free trial: https://marketech.com.au/focus?utm_so... SS&C Intralinks - Powering deals with unmatched security and efficiency | https://www.intralinks.com/ ------------------------------------------------------- 📌 FOLLOW US Join our group chat: Discord:   / discord   Subscribe to our podcast: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0LsIJIs... Apple: https://apple.co/3Fdocwx Follow us on all social platforms to stay up-to-date: Twitter: https://x.com/moneyofminepod Instagram:   / moneyofminepod   LinkedIn:   / moneyofmine   Facebook:   / moneyofminepod   TikTok:   / moneyofminepod   Our personal Twitter accounts: Travis Ricciardo:   / travmoneyofmine   Jonas Dorling:   / jdmoneyofmine   ------------------------------------------------------- ⚠️ DISCLAIMER All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. The hosts of Money of Mine are not financial professionals. Money of Mine and our contributors are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial, legal or tax professional. Money of Mine doesn’t operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given. MoM strive to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this podcast but we don’t make any representation or warranty that it’s accurate or up to date. Any views expressed by the hosts of Money of Mine are their opinions only and may contain forward-looking statements that may not eventuate. Please read the full Disclaimer here: https://www.moneyofmine.com/privacy-p...