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#klochok #war #negotiations In this issue, we will analyze the real chances of a ceasefire in the sky and why the Russian economy could become a key factor in ending the war. 00:00 Discussion of the "air truce" initiative (cessation of mutual shelling). 01:00 About strikes on Russian refineries and ports, as well as their impact on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. 01:44 The position of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on negotiations and the front line. 02:50 President Zelensky's plans to resume negotiations in the fall and the skepticism of the speakers. 03:15 Why Russia is counting on the winter period ("to drive Ukraine into the ground"). 04:47 The possibility of a new "grain deal" or the cessation of hostilities at sea. 06:56 Why documents have been prepared for the opening of airports ("Boryspil", "Lviv") - plan "B". 07:55 The impact of war and strikes on trust in the government in Russia. 09:11 Forecast of the end of the war: why 2026 is unlikely, and 2027 is a realistic scenario. 09:59 Why the “North Korea 2.0” scenario will not work in Russia. 10:43 Why Putin is afraid of a large mobilization and a fall in the share prices of Russian enterprises. Valeriy Klochok - Head of the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha", Head of the Charitable Foundation "Nova Doroga" X ► https://x.com/ValeriyKlochok Telegram ► https://t.me/vklochok TikTok ►   / klochokvalerii   Facebook ►   / valerii.klochok   You can support the channel's work to the Privatbank account Card - 5169 3600 3840 9748 Klochok Valeriy IBAN - UA153052990262006401007245466 PayPal Klochok Valerii [email protected]