中東美伊交火油價衝！為何大砲一響黃金不漲？渣打教你用長短債利差與黃金對抗法定貨幣貶值 下半年資產配置 ft.渣打銀行 劉家豪 【#市場觀測站Podcast EP183】CC字幕 @cteevideo​

In the second half of this year, global interest rates have swung like a pendulum. Just when the market thought a rate cut was imminent, the Federal Reserve swung back towards raising rates! With the volatile situation between the US and Iran in the Middle East and rising oil prices fueling inflation concerns, the market is highly anxious about the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of July. While real economic data is strong, financial markets are fluctuating wildly amid expectations of rate hikes and cuts. Meanwhile, the yen continues to hit 40-year lows, and gold, after the initial sharp declines, has fallen instead of rising, briefly dipping below the $4,000 mark! What are the underlying financial secrets behind this? This episode of "Market Observation Station" EP183 features Allen Liu, Head of Investment Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management. He will provide investors with incisive analysis of the underlying logic and defensive allocation strategies for the bond, currency, and gold markets in the second half of the year! 💡 【30-Second Financial Highlights Q&A】(⚠️Recorded on: 2026/7/15) Q: Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates again in the second half of the year? A: Standard Chartered expects to maintain a "wait-and-see" stance until the end of the year. Currently, US employment and consumption momentum are robust, making a rate cut unnecessary; while inflation is a supply-side issue that cannot be solved by raising rates, therefore maintaining a neutral wait-and-see approach is the most likely outcome. Q: Is it better to buy short-term or long-term bonds now? A: Long-term bonds reflect the national fiscal deficit, limiting capital gains; one should focus on "stable interest income." Short-term bonds (such as 2-year bonds) directly affect Fed policy; if the Fed shifts from hawkish to dovish in the future, short-term bonds will have the advantage of the "option" to earn capital gains. Q: Gold has fallen below $4,000, is it still a good time to buy? A: The recent decline is due to "short-term noise" from oil-producing countries and Russia selling gold to raise cash. However, in the long term, the continued depreciation of fiat currencies worldwide and the net buying trend of emerging market central banks remain unchanged. Standard Chartered forecasts a target price of $4,750 to $5,100 for gold over the next 3-12 months, making it an excellent asset stabilizer. 💡 Episode 183: Core Industry Insights (⚠️Recorded on 2026/7/15) 【Three Core Insights for Asset Allocation in the Second Half of the Year】 ◎ Fed Holds Rates Steady and the "Option" of Long-Term and Short-Term Bond Allocation: Standard Chartered expects the Fed to maintain its "hold-up" policy until the end of this year. Long-term bonds reflect the high fiscal deficits and long-term inflation risks in various countries, requiring higher risk premiums and limiting capital gains. Conversely, short-term bond prices (e.g., 2-year 4.2% vs. 10-year 4.5%) are directly linked to Fed policy. Once policy shifts from hawkish to neutral, short-term bonds offer the advantage of a "option" for capital gains. ◎ The Solution to Tokyo's Dilemma Lies in Washington: The yen hit a 40-year low, and even intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 1% failed to stem its decline. The main reason is the conflict between the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's large-scale fiscal stimulus bond issuance and the interest rate hike policy; furthermore, if the Bank of Japan sells US Treasury bonds to bail out the yen, it will instead cause US Treasury yields to rise, attracting capital outflows. As long as the US-Japan interest rate differential does not narrow and the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, Tokyo's dilemma will ultimately depend on Washington's stance. ◎ The Inside Story of Gold Falling Below $4000 Despite the Gunfire and the Outlook for $5100: The decline in gold prices was due to a combination of "structural buying" and "short-term noise." Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, facing difficulties selling oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the disruption to Russian refineries forcing them to buy gasoline from India, sold off their gold holdings to realize cash amid fiscal deficits. However, the long-term gold-buying trend of emerging market central banks (such as China and Poland) remains unchanged. With the opening of the Taiwan Strait and the long-term depreciation of fiat currencies, Standard Chartered expects gold prices to reach $4,750 to $5,100 USD in the next 3-12 months. 🎙️Host: Chen Bifeng, Deputy Director of the Editorial Department and Head of the Industry and Economy Research Group of the Commercial Times 🎙️Guest: Liu Jiahao, Head of Investment Strategy, Wealth Management, Standard Chartered Bank ⚡️ Key Timeline of this Episode 00:00 Program Opening: Interest Rates Swing Like a Pendulum! Middle East Oil Price Surge and Second Half-Year Bond a...