Be ready for "unexplainable rallies" in the grain markets (and watch the corn export number)

As corn and soybean crops move into a critical stage of development, grain markets appear remarkably unconcerned about production risk despite excessive moisture in parts of the U.S. Midwest. According to Chip Flory, market analyst and host of AgriTalk, the market has become conditioned to expect resilient crops, even when early-season weather creates visible stress and longer-term risks are still in play. Flory says this year's U.S. corn crop is showing the effects of too much moisture in several key production regions, including Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. While the crop currently looks rough, he expects appearances to improve as warmer weather accelerates growth. "The market is trading like we're going to see a record corn yield," says Flory. "I don't think the market cares right now about any of the potential threats to the crop." That confidence is reflected in futures prices, with December corn trading below US$4.40 despite weather concerns. Flory says speculative funds have shifted from long to short positions, signalling little concern about yield risk. He also expects USDA acreage estimates to remain close to March planting intentions, with only modest adjustments despite regional planting challenges. Looking ahead, Flory believes demand—not production—could become the bigger story. He points to geopolitical developments involving China and Iran as potential catalysts for grain exports, while cautioning that policy shifts could quickly change market sentiment. Rather than trying to react in real time, he encourages farmers to prepare in advance. "There will be unexplainable rallies in these grain markets," he says. "You've got to have your sell orders in place above the market already." While global wheat production issues in Europe and Australia could eventually support prices, Flory says any sustained strength across the grains will likely require improved demand for corn and soybeans as well. For growers facing several years of tight margins, he argues disciplined marketing will remain one of the most important tools available. Website: https://www.realagriculture.com/ #markets #farming #agriculture Find us on our other social media platforms: X/Twitter:   / realagriculture   Instagram:   / realagriculture   Facebook:   / realagmedia