Will Turkey box Israel out of Hamas's future role in Gaza?

As Trump meets Erdogan and F-35 sales dominate the headlines, former Israeli intelligence colonel Or Horvitz makes a contrarian case: Turkey is a real and growing threat to Israel, but it is not, and will not become, the next Iran. In this conversation with The Jerusalem Post's Jacob Laznik, Horvitz breaks with the alarmist consensus taking hold among Israeli decision-makers. He argues that Ankara "is not Abu Dhabi, but not Tehran either", a pragmatic actor Washington and Jerusalem still have real leverage over, from NATO corridors to the quiet air-force deconfliction seen over Syria. On the F-35 fight, he notes that Israeli officials themselves frame the sale as "very bad, but not a disaster," and warns against turning a manageable disagreement into a public rupture with Israel's indispensable ally. On Gaza, he's blunt: Hamas's move to disband its emergency committee is "only a charade," and the group will never surrender its weapons without military force. What makes this perspective unusual is the source. Horvitz spent years at the center of Israel's campaigns against Hezbollah and Iran, and he's now warning that pattern-matching Turkey onto the Iran template is a strategic error, one that could push Israel toward a confrontation that disciplined competition could still avoid. It's a rare inside-the-tent argument for restraint on one front so Israel can concentrate on the threats that matter most: Iran's enriched-uranium stockpile, a demilitarized Hezbollah, and the dismantling of Hamas. 00:00 – Intro: Iran, Turkey, and Gaza all in play at once 00:47 – Why Turkey is "not Abu Dhabi, but not Tehran" 02:48 – The core argument: Turkey is not the next Iran 03:53 – No return to the 1990s: managing a permanent rivalry 05:45 – Do Israel's decision-makers actually share this view? 07:42 – The F-35 fight and Israel's eroding air superiority 09:31 – Why the US wants to sell F-35s to Turkey 11:29 – Turkey, Qatar, and the fight over Gaza's "Board of Peace" 13:15 – Israel's counter-strategy: military pressure plus moderate forces 15:50 – Hamas disbands its committee: "only a charade" 18:10 – Why Hamas will never surrender its weapons 22:37 – The push to retake 80% of Gaza 24:39 – Israel's real priorities: Iran's uranium, Lebanon, Hamas 27:18 – Should Israel concede on Turkey to keep Washington close? ________________ More from The Jerusalem Post: http://www.jpost.com Facebook:   / thejerusalempost   Twitter:   / jerusalem_post   Instagram:   / thejerusalem_post