Le plan caché de François Hollande pour la présidentielle

In this new edition of the week's political news, Antoine Léaument addresses four topics: Bernard Cazeneuve's presidential candidacy, the issue of opinion polls and their structural biases, the disintegration of Macron's party and the National Rally in the National Assembly, and finally, forest fires and the resulting political responsibilities. Bernard Cazeneuve's presidential candidacy, announced outside the Socialist primary, is analyzed with a touch of irony. Antoine Léaument begins by reminding us that Cazeneuve authored the 2016 law that created the first "license to kill" for police officers, introducing vague wording authorizing the use of firearms in situations of potential danger to others—wording directly responsible for the increase in police shootings and the subsequent deaths. Politically, Cazeneuve knows perfectly well that he cannot win: in the already narrow social-democratic space between La France Insoumise and Macron's party, there can only be one viable candidate. His candidacy is aimed more at sowing discord and preparing the ground for a candidacy by François Hollande, of whom he is one of the most loyal supporters. Regarding the polls, Antoine Léaument revisits the conclusions of his report No. 1479 on the organization of elections. Polling institutes have enormous difficulty capturing certain segments of the population: young first-time voters, the working class, residents of working-class neighborhoods, and habitual abstainers. The socio-demographic adjustments intended to correct these biases can, on the contrary, amplify them—he cites an Ifop poll that gave Marine Le Pen 46% in the first round after adjustment, a clear sign of a flawed sample. Political realignments tend to redistribute some of Mélenchon's electorate to other left-wing forces. Furthermore, the filter of voters certain to vote structurally excludes a portion of Mélenchon's electorate, which gains momentum as the election approaches. In short: when polls show good results for La France Insoumise, it's because they are actually doing very well. In the National Assembly, the disintegration of right-wing groups is dramatic. During the examination of the Riposte bill on a Friday, the members of La France Insoumise—thirteen deputies present—were the largest group in the chamber, ahead of a National Rally reduced to five or six deputies and about ten Macron supporters. To block votes they were about to lose, the opposition had to resort to roll-call ballots and proxy voting. In the Law Committee, the attempt to quickly bury the petition against the "license to kill"—which has now garnered over 700,000 signatures—turned into a fiasco: virtually no one from Macron's camp or the National Rally (RN) showed up, allowing the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) to impose their own candidate as rapporteur. Antoine Léaument is calling for a massive number of signatures on the petition to reach one million before the committee's review. Regarding the fires, Gabriel Attal made a fool of himself by denying that he had canceled the order for two Canadair water bombers, even though written evidence establishes that he halved a program for four aircraft. The first Canadairs ordered today will not arrive before 2032. In the meantime, Antoine Léaument mentions the possibility of converting A400M aircraft into water bombers to address the emergency. For more details, he refers to his speech at the Fête de la Révolution (Revolution Day) in Sainte-Geneviève-des-Bois, available on his channel. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and presentation of the topics 02:10 Bernard Cazeneuve's candidacy: analysis and political calculation 07:04 Polls: bias, adjustments, and underestimation of the Mélenchon electorate 21:16 The disintegration of Macron's party and the National Rally in the National Assembly 29:42 Fires: Gabriel Attal's responsibility regarding the Canadair water bombers **FOLLOW ME ON** Twitch:   / aleaument   TikTok:   / aleaument   Facebook:   / aleaument   Twitter:   / aleaument   Discord:   / discord   Instagram:   / aleaument   Snapchat: @ALeaument YouTube (to subscribe): http://bit.ly/2gbk7cm Whatsapp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaCU... Linkedin:   / aleaument