Vaincre le hasard

We all notice daily that certain events occur simultaneously: a recovery following medication, a birth surge on a full moon, several cancers appearing in the population living near a nuclear site, and so on. But how can we know if these events are linked? How can we be sure that the recovery is due to the medication, or that the moon triggered these births, or that the nuclear facility is responsible? Jean-Jacques Ingremeau invites you to discover our cognitive biases in a lecture, how the scientific method was developed to avoid them, and above all, the impact this can have on how we access information and choose whom to trust. Lecture given at the Faculty of Sciences in Nantes on March 12, 2024 https://mediaserver.univ-nantes.fr/ch... By Jean-Jacques Ingremeau, member of the board of directors of Afis 0:00: Opening credits and introduction 1:10: Chance can mislead us - presentation of Afis 3:17: Are there more births on nights of a full moon? 8:50: Cognitive biases 17:17: A small experiment 19:38: "Success stories" and falsifiability 21:13: How to prove the effectiveness of a drug? 30:04: Let's conduct a randomized trial! 33:55: P-Value 41:58: Pediatric Leukemia and Nuclear Power Plants 49:19: French Cancers from Chernobyl 56:14: Risk and Danger / The Dose and the Poison 1:00:24: Conclusion 1:01:58: Questions This video is produced by AFIS, a volunteer association dedicated to promoting scientific information. You can also find our magazine, Science et pseudo-sciences (Science and Pseudosciences), at newsstands and online: https://www.afis.org/-La-revue-Scienc... Learn more about AFIS: https://www.afis.org/Qu-est-ce-que-l-... The AFIS website: www.afis.org The "afis science" app is available on Android and iOS. Joining the association provides access to additional videos.