Why Tinubu Lost Lagos In 2023 — And Is Losing The Southwest In 2027

In 2023, Bola Tinubu lost his own state — Lagos — to Peter Obi. Osun went to Atiku. Now, with Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde formally declaring for the presidency and the Southwest showing declining APC primary numbers in Ekiti, Ondo, and Ogun, the political map of Nigeria's most strategically important region is shifting faster than most analysts are reporting. In this video, I break down the six Southwest states one by one — Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ogun, Ondo, and Ekiti — and explain exactly where Tinubu is vulnerable, what Makinde's presidential declaration actually means strategically, and what the Southwest political class needs to do to retain leverage in 2027 regardless of who wins nationally. This is not speculation. This is analysis backed by the 2023 election data, the 2026 APC primary results, and the latest on-the-ground political alignments.