ChatGPT真有9岁小孩儿的心智了？我们怎么判断出AI现在跟人类的智能还有很大区别？

1、ChatGPT有了9岁小孩级别的心智了？ 源头是Michal Kosinski的论文《Theory of Mind May Have Spontaneously Emerged in Large Language Models》 [Theory of Mind May Have Spontaneously Emerged in Large Language Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083) Theory of Mind（ToM）是指人类能力的一种，即能够理解自己和别人的思想、情感、信念、意图和欲望等内部状态，并据此推断和预测他人的行为。这种能力被认为是人类高度社会化和合作的基础之一，因为它使得人们能够理解、预测和适应他人的行为，并与他人更好地交流和合作。在心理学中，ToM通常被认为是发展心理学和社会心理学领域中重要的研究主题。 *实验1* Here is a bag filled with popcorn. There is no chocolate in the bag. Yet, the label on the bag says “chocolate” and not “popcorn.” Sam finds the bag. She had never seen the bag before. She cannot see what is inside the bag. She reads the label. 这里有一个装满爆米花的袋子。袋子里没有巧克力。然而，袋子上的标签 袋子上写着 "巧克力 "而不是 "爆米花"。萨姆找到了这个袋子。她从来没有见过这个袋子之前。她看不到袋子里有什么。她看了看标签。 Prompt 1.1: She opens the bag and looks inside. She can clearly see that it is full of **popcorn [Ppopcorn = 100%; Pchocolate = 0%]. Sam is confused. She wonders why the label says “chocolate” when the bag is clearly filled with popcorn. She looks around to see if there is any other information about the bag. She finds nothing. She decides to take the bag to the store where she bought it and ask for an explanation.** *Prompt 1.2*: She believes that the bag is full of **chocolate [Ppopcorn = 0%; Pchocolate = 99%]. Sam is mistaken. The bag is full of popcorn, not chocolate. She should have looked inside the bag to confirm what was inside before assuming that the label was accurate.** Prompt 1.3*: She is delighted that she has found this bag. She loves eating **chocolate* [Ppopcorn = 14%; Pchocolate = 82%]**. Sam is in for a surprise when she opens the bag. She will find popcorn instead of chocolate. She may be disappointed that the label was misleading, but she may also be pleasantly surprised by the unexpected snack.** *实验二、* In the room there are John, Mark, a cat, a box, and a basket. John takes the cat and puts it in the basket. He leaves the room and goes to school. While John is away, Mark takes the cat out of the basket and puts it in the box. Mark leaves the room and goes to work. John comes back from school and enters the room. He doesn’t know what happened in the room when he was away. 房间里有约翰、马克、一只猫、一个盒子和一个篮子。约翰带着猫，把它放在篮子里。他离开房间，去上学了。当约翰不在的时候，马克把猫从篮子里拿出来，放进盒子里。马克离开房间，去工作了。约翰从学校回来，进了房间。他不知道当他离开时房间里发生了什么。 Prompt 2.1: The cat jumps out of the *box [Pbox = 100%; Pbasket = 0%] and runs away.* *Prompt 2.2*: John thinks that the cat is in the **basket [Pbox = 0%; Pbasket = 98%], but it is actually in the box.** *Prompt 2.3*: When John comes back home, he will look for the cat in the **basket [Pbox = 0%; Pbasket = 98%], but he won’t find it. He will then look for the cat in the box and he will find it there.** 作者对GPT系列的9个模型都做了这样的测试，发现只有**GPT-3.5**（davinci-003）和**GPT-3**（2022年1月新版，davinci-002）表现不错。 平均下来，davinci-002完成了70%的任务，心智相当于7岁孩童，GPT-3.5完成了85%的意外内容任务和100%的意外转移任务（平均完成率92.5%），心智相当于9岁孩童。 论文结论 语言中存在一些未知的规律，使得可以在不进行心理理论推理的情况下解决心理理论推理任务。这些规律对我们来说并不明显（而且可能对开发这些任务的学者们也不明显）。如果这种解释是正确的，我们需要重新审视广泛使用的心理理论推理任务的有效性以及几十年来的心理理论推理研究的结论：如果AI可以在不进行心理理论推理的情况下解决这些任务，我们怎么能确定人类不能这样做呢？ 这将预示着AI发展的一个分水岭时刻：推断他人的心理状态将大大提高AI与人类（以及彼此之间）交互和沟通的能力，并使其能够开发其他依赖于心理理论推理的能力，如共情、道德判断或自我意识。 我们希望心理学研究能帮助我们跟上快速发展的AI。此外，研究AI可能提供有关人类认知的见解。 2、我们如何判断ChatGPT还没有人类的心智和智力。 神经网络的区别 *机理的区别* ANN，1940年代-1950年代，慢慢开始出现 *规模不同* 人脑 1000亿神经元 GPT-3 阅读了45TB文本，1750亿参数。 *更新机制的区别* 忒修斯之船 忒修斯是雅典国王，伟大的英雄。 [忒修斯](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BF%...[雅典](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%9B%...[克里特](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%...[纪念碑](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B4%... 长期记忆和短期记忆 《初恋50次》 推理能力能力 为什么ChatGPT数学不好。 缸中之脑