SCRUTINY : Opposition disunity & not its own performance, is BJP’s only hope

The Goa BJP may today be at its most politically vulnerable position since the historic 2012 Assembly election. Despite controlling the government, commanding a large legislative majority and possessing enormous organisational strength, the party secured only around one-third of the vote in 2022. Its strongest hope of returning to power may therefore lie not in overwhelming public support, but in ensuring that the opposition remains divided. In this episode of Scrutiny, INK Goa examines whether the Pramod Sawant-led BJP is now in the same position as the Congress government before its defeat in 2012. Across Goa, public anger is growing over land conversion, mega projects, hill cutting, tree felling, groundwater pressure and the erosion of village identity. Section 39A has become a symbol of how the Regional Plan is being altered through individual conversion proposals. The withdrawal of the proposal to classify 56 villages as urban has raised another question: was it a genuine policy reversal or merely an election-time tactical retreat? The government has also stepped back or paused controversial decisions involving digital power meters, Unity Mall in Chimbel and certain land conversions. But while visible proposals are withdrawn, the larger machinery of conversion, construction and settlement expansion continues. The protests in Chimbel, Karapur–Sarvan, Siridao and other villages reveal a widening conflict between mega development and local carrying capacity. The episode also examines the diversion of forest land, rampant tree felling and the damage caused to Goa’s natural water-recharge systems. Goa may receive heavy rainfall, but it is steadily losing the forests, hills, fields, wetlands and open spaces that store that rain. Agriculture is declining, land is becoming unaffordable and major investments are not necessarily creating secure, well-paying jobs for Goans. The perception that money and political influence are required for jobs, licences and permissions has deepened public resentment. The BJP’s traditional social coalition is also under strain, with dissatisfaction among Scheduled Tribes, Bhandaris and other Bahujan communities. Its Christian outreach today appears significantly weaker than the broad political engagement developed by Manohar Parrikar before 2012. Repeated defections have strengthened the BJP inside the Assembly, but they have also created internal ticket rivalries and destroyed public faith in opposition candidates. The postponement of municipal elections has further raised questions about whether the BJP itself is confident of facing voters in Goa’s towns. The BJP remains formidable, but its greatest political asset may be the opposition’s inability to unite and offer a trustworthy alternative. The decisive question is whether Goa’s scattered public anger will remain divided—or find the political direction that removed the Congress in 2012.