“110만 원 할 때 팔 걸”…금값 계속 떨어지는 이유 [잇슈 머니] / KBS 2026.07.03.

The second keyword is "Should I have sold gold then... Will it rise again?" Isn't it common investment wisdom that gold prices rise when war breaks out? Yet, gold prices have plummeted. What is the reason? [Answer] In a word, it is because the negative factor of interest rates outweighed the positive factor of risk. There are two main reasons. First is the fear of interest rate hikes. Gold is a prime example of a non-interest-bearing asset that does not pay a single penny in interest, no matter how long you hold it. Therefore, when interest rates rise, its attractiveness drops sharply compared to deposits or bonds. However, as concerns about inflation grew due to rising oil prices originating from the Middle East, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh declared price stability his top priority after taking office. Currently, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch forecasts two or three benchmark interest rate hikes this year and estimates the probability of a hike in September to be over 60%. In other words, gold prices fell as the market already priced in the possibility of a benchmark interest rate hike within the year. Second, there is the movement of capital. Analysis suggests that investors' interest is shifting toward growth assets such as AI semiconductors or the SpaceX IPO. Furthermore, the strong dollar has increased the burden of purchasing gold, leading to continued capital outflows from gold ETFs. Simply put, money that was in gold has moved out to places that pay interest and grow. [Anchor] How much has the price of gold fallen? In particular, what is the current situation for those who bought gold early this year? [Answer] Those who bought at the peak in January are still in a loss zone of around 28%. After hitting an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January, the international price of gold fell to as low as $3,983 during trading on July 1, breaking the $4,000 mark. In particular, the decline over the three months of the second quarter was approximately 14%, marking the largest quarterly drop in 13 years since the second quarter of 2013. Typically, a drop of more than 20% from a peak is considered the entry into a bear market. Looking at the domestic market, the price of one don (unit of weight) of pure gold, which once neared 1.1 million won, fell to the 860,000 won range for buying and the 720,000 won range for selling in late June. However, there was a turnaround on July 2nd. Gold prices broke two consecutive days of decline and rebounded, rising by as much as 0.9% during the session and trading near $4,066 per ounce. [Anchor] You just mentioned a rebound. In that case, you might be wondering if you should sell gold now. Or is it an opportunity to buy? [Answer] The key to determining the direction of gold prices is not the Middle East, but the 'federal's stance.' The rebound on July 2nd is proof of this. Gold prices immediately surged as expectations for a rate hike this year eased following Federal Reserve Chair Wash's less hawkish remarks at the ECB Forum in Portugal on July 1. This demonstrated that gold prices fluctuate significantly even with the slightest shift in interest rate expectations. Therefore, you must keep two things in mind. First, there is a defensive line to prevent further declines. Central banks around the world are increasing their gold holdings in preparation for geopolitical uncertainty, and forecasts suggest that this demand could support the lower end around $3,900 per ounce. In other words, it can be concluded that prices will not fall significantly further. Second, however, volatility must still be considered. Even in the remarks that triggered the rebound, Chair Wash reaffirmed his commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target, but he did not provide guidance on the future direction. With the dollar still at a high level, gold prices could fluctuate again if the option of raising interest rates resurfaces depending on inflation indicators. ▣ View original KBS article: http://news.kbs.co.kr/news/view.do?nc... ▣ Report a Tip ◇ KakaoTalk: Search 'KBS제보' ◇ Phone: 02-781-1234 ◇ Website: https://goo.gl/4bWbkG ◇ Email: [email protected] Copyright ⓒ KBS. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use (including AI learning) are prohibited. #IssueMoney #GoldPrice #CentralBank #SafeAsset #MiddleEastWar #InterestRateHike #KevinWarsh #Gold