Почему Украина миграционнная паника в Украине является самообманом. Олег Устенко, Юрий Романенко

In a joint broadcast, Yuriy Romanenko and economist Oleh Ustenko dissect the economic reality in which Ukraine has been living this spring—a reality woven from global volatility, war, and its own management miscalculations. The conversation opens with a panorama of global markets: the S&P 500 is storming historic highs, but gold isn't falling, oil is rising, and yields on UK and US government bonds signal that major investors don't share the optimism of stock market speculators. The global economy resembles a hall where some are dancing enthusiastically, others are standing against the wall, and the most cautious have already left the party—and slammed the door. The current nerve is the Persian crisis. The Strait of Hormuz remains a geopolitical battleground: daily losses of 10-15 million barrels are putting pressure on global logistics, accelerating fuel inflation, and reshaping trade flows. India, which enjoyed American concessions to purchase Russian oil, is losing that privilege this week. Russia is extracting additional oil revenue, but a budget deficit of $70 billion over four months eloquently demonstrates that the military economy is devouring any short-term revenue. Trump's visit to Beijing is the main intrigue of the coming days, capable of upending the calculations of all participants. On the Ukrainian track, Ustenko meticulously analyzes the budget arithmetic. A deficit of $45 billion, with a realistic mobilization target of $40 billion, is already a risk zone, leaving no room for populist experiments. The fuel cashback program, compensatory payments, and military salary increases without a clear understanding of the size of the army—all these are symptoms of managerial carelessness under a severe budget constraint. NBU reserves have fallen by almost $5 billion in a month—primarily due to debt payments and exchange rate revaluation—but remain at a safe level. The key question is the speed of the European tranche, delayed until early June. The final chord is the demographic myth of a migrant "invasion." The authors construct a cold argument: the Ukrainian labor market offers neither wages comparable to European ones nor a welfare state capable of attracting mass migrants from South Asia. India's middle class—over four hundred million people—lives at the level of Bulgaria or Romania, but has its own career horizons and is not drawn to a country at war. The panic, sparked by unverified videos from Ivano-Frankivsk and propagated by officials with understated demographic data, is the product of collective self-intimidation, not a real threat. The true answer to the labor shortage is an investment climate, productivity, and reform. You can buy merch here: https://medoyid.com Monobank donation to the studio: https://send.monobank.ua/jar/5C86fTjsiU Become a channel sponsor:    / @yuriyromanenko_ukraine   You can support the channel: To my Patreon:   / romanenkoyuriy   to my Privat card: 4731 1856 1467 7968 to my Monobank card: 5375 4114 2205 9084 PayPal: [email protected] Follow my channels on social media: My Telegram channel: https://t.me/romanenko_dns My Facebook page:   / yuriy.romanenko1977   My business page on Facebook:   / yuriy.romanenko   My Instagram page:   / ​​   "Khvylya" Facebook page:   / hvylya   TIMECODES 00:00:54 — Start 00:01:46 — Persian crisis and global oil. Strait of Hormuz, $104 per barrel 00:04:11 — Global economy: mixed market signals. S&P 500 at peaks, gold holds, dollar weakens 00:06:27 — Government debt price as a fear indicator: Britain at five percent, the US at four and four 00:08:17 — Investors are leaving the party: three groups of players and their behavioral logic 00:11:12 — Key intrigue: Trump's visit to Beijing and talks with Xi. The fate of the Iranian settlement 00:12:36 — Russia is a winner: oil concessions, India, and a seventy billion budget deficit 00:22:00 — Ukrainian budget: a forty-five billion deficit and a delay in the European tranche 00:23:19 — Ninety billion euros from the EU: structure, timing, real amounts for Ukraine 00:29:00 — NBU reserves have fallen by five billion. Where to get the forty billion rubles in funding 00:36:04 — Military salaries: where the money comes from, how much can actually be raised, and who can afford it 00:40:31 — Optimizing military spending: fictitious soldiers, wounded in the rear, savings reserves 00:44:17 — India vs. Europe's middle class: figures, gaps, and the real motivation for migration 00:52:57 — The UAE model: labor migration as a rotational system, not resettlement 00:56:09 — Why Indian migrants won't go to Ukraine: arguments from an economist 01:05:07 — Ukraine's demographics: twenty-eight million, not twenty-two. Officials' mistakes #economy #ukraine #romanenko