[#판도라] FOMC 이후 포트 1순위…삼전닉스 vs 새 주도주ㅣ김한진ㅣ이화진ㅣ이재규

#SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #FOMC ▶ 20260617 Reading the Board: Pandora ▶ Mon-Thu 19:00 📈 Hosts: Anchor Jung Yoon-sung / Caster Lee Jung-woo 📈 Guests: ■ Kim Han-jin | Economist ■ Lee Hwa-jin | Deputy Manager, Gwanghwamun Premier Center, Meritz Securities ■ Lee Jae-kyu | Deputy Manager, WM1 Sales Division, SK Securities 📈 Changes in Market Character and Diagnosis of Leading Stocks Following the Closing Agreement ✔️ [O/X] Rotational trading following the closing agreement; have the market's leading stocks changed? 👉 Dr. Kim Han-jin & Deputy Manager Lee Jae-kyu (X): The leading sectors (AI/Semiconductors) have not changed. A complete shift in leading stocks typically signifies the end of a bull market, but currently, there are no signs of a financial crunch or a shift to a bear market. The rotation of sectors other than semiconductors is a concept of a kind of 'bonus rally'. 👉 Deputy General Manager Lee Hwa-jin (O): Focus on the possibility of a fundamental shift in the second half, centering on KOSDAQ growth sectors that have been "empty houses" and undervalued stocks with policy momentum, in addition to the semiconductor sector that led the first half. ✔️ Healthy Rotation and Asset Allocation 👉 Dr. Kim Han-jin: "If the semiconductor sector runs solo at the speed of light, it places a burden on the market and causes side effects (disasters). A bull market can only sustain healthily and for a long time if a rotation unfolds where everyone is happy—for example, semiconductors rising for two days a week and other sectors like biotech rising for three." 📈 The KOSDAQ Counterattack and Strategies for Targeting the 'Empty House' Biotech Sector ✔️ Focus on Biotech Platform Companies to Fill Supply and Demand Gaps 👉 During the first half, credit balances in the KOSDAQ market were significantly cleared, resolving the risk of leveraged margin calls to a considerable extent. In particular, the biotech sector has remained in a state of being a "empty house" due to a lack of supply, despite achieving record-breaking technology transfers (14 cases) in the first half. 👉 With institutional investors and pension funds closing their new books and inflows in the second half of the year, a strong supply and demand turnaround is expected, centered on bio platform and new drug companies with proven earnings and clinical data. 👉 Key Stocks of Interest: D&D Pharmatech (Expectations for technology transfer within the year and highlights of best-in-class clinical data), Alteogen (Resolution of risks related to the abandonment of UK patents and momentum for additional technology transfer), and Olix (Beneficiary of L'Oréal's equity investment). 🚢 KOSPI Blue-Chip Supporting Actor: The Appeal of 'Shipbuilding Stocks' with Powerful Earnings ✔️ Reflection of High-Priced Orders Combined with AI Narratives 👉 Earnings turnaround is being proven as low-priced orders are being cleared from financial statements and a mix of high-priced orders is being fully reflected. This is further aided by positive news regarding the Special Act on Investment in the U.S. (Korea-U.S. Strategic Investment Corporation) and momentum for specialized vessels such as warships and submarines. 👉 Based on industry PBR, shipbuilding stocks (4x) remain highly attractive in terms of valuation relative to earnings validity compared to power equipment (8x) and defense (5x), making it the second most attractive KOSPI sector after semiconductors. 💰 Interest Rate Pressure and Critical Point Signals Amidst an Earnings-Driven Market ✔️ A "Goldilocks" Phase Riding the Wall of Worry 👉 With U.S. consumption and employment indicators gradually cooling down, the situation remains volatile; considering the decline in disposable income, inflationary pressure in the second half is limited. It is not an emergency situation requiring the Fed to urgently raise interest rates. 👉 Despite significant stock price increases, the earnings denominator is so large that, based on forward PER, it is difficult to definitively label Korean (around 8x) and U.S. tech stocks as a bubble, resulting in a thoroughly "earnings-driven market." ✔️ Hidden Fatigue in the Bond Market 👉 However, as the total issuance volume of corporate and government bonds by private big tech companies and the U.S. government accumulates, long-term interest rates will not fall easily and will gradually stimulate the stock market. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches a critical point that threatens the 5% mark again in the future, caution is required regarding a sharp shift in asset allocation positions (a transition to a bear market). 🤖 Analysis of Epic AI Pick Issue Stocks • Hanwha Ocean: Securing massive defense momentum, including the imminent awarding of a 60 trillion won Canadian next-generation submarine project and a detailed design order for the Korean Next-Generation Destroyer (KDX-III). • ABL Bio: Reflecting expectations for partnerships with global big pharma firms at the upcoming Bi...