The “Ceasefire” Won’t Save The Economy

This week on Prof G Markets, Ed Elson is joined by Mark Zandi to break down what the tenuous ceasefire in Iran means for the U.S. economy and investors. They discuss his forecast for inflation, what the Federal Reserve is likely to do next, and the probability of a recession. Mark Zandi is the chief economist of Moody’s, a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. He also hosts the Inside Economics podcast. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter: https://links.profgmedia.com/markets-... Order Notes On Being A Man now! https://amzn.to/4nl4VKo Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:17 Today's episode 01:22 Interview with Mark Zandi 01:33 How has this adjusted your views of what’s going to happen in the markets and in the economy? 03:30 Do you think that the $2 million ship fee will hold and how significant is it from an inflation perspective? 07:02 How do you think that this ceasefire will impact our economy further down the line? 10:27 What is the overall trajectory of gas prices at this point? 14:12 Ad break 16:56 What do you think this means for the Fed's decision and how might that affect asset prices moving forward? 22:17 How does this week’s news change your recession outlook? 25:41 How do you price the risk of a Strait of Hormuz disruption in your model? 29:47 Ad break 32:24 What do you make of the labor market right now and how did that report adjust your expectations? 38:56 How meaningful is 4% inflation for consumers, and should they worry? 43:49 If you had to pick one thing that you think is most important or significant right now, what would it be? 46:24 Credits Follow Scott on Instagram:   / profgalloway   Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack:   / ed_elson_     / edels0n   https://substack.com/@edwardelson Subscribe to Prof G Markets on Spotify: https://links.profgmedia.com/markets-... Got a question for Prof G? Get answers on TikTok: https://links.profgmedia.com/tiktok Want more Prof G? Check out everything we're up to at: https://links.profgmedia.com/home Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected] Note: We may earn revenue from some of the links we provide. #business #news #tech #financemotivation #stockmarket #profg #scottgalloway #edelson #profgmarkets #ai #earnings #stocks #inflation #investmentstrategies #investment #investing #gdp #tariffs #2026